204
FXUS63 KBIS 152137
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH A 90 PERCENT OR
GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO NEAR NORMAL
THEN TREND COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE ALSO IS AN INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL DAY
FOR A WHILE AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE NORTHWEST WITH A 70-90
PERCENT CHANCE. WHILE THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST HAS A 30-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND THE SOUTHEAST HAS THE
LOWEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AROUND 10-15 PERCENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER
TO SNOW SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND
THE LOW. THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A
SNOW MIXES IN. IF PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO START EARLIER INCREASING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WHILE LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM BANDED SNOW. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE LOWER
THAN 10:1 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SNOW TRANSITION RESULTING IN
LOWER ACCUMULATIONS, BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT A 10:1
RATIO WILL BE MORE LIKELY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWN SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S NORTHWEST WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS
WHILE THE SOUTHEAST COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLIGHTLY WARM BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK AMPLITUDE
RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT
WEEK. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOWS TRACK HAS SHIFTED EVERY RUN
RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION AND TIMING. THIS DUE TO
AN AMPLIFICATION ISSUE THE MODELS ARE HAVING DUE TO AN OMEGA
BLOCK SET UP. THE NEWEST 12Z ENSEMBLES PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW
HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OUTLIERS. RIGHT NOW PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UP. THE
NBM HAS INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER
FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONE THING WE KNOW ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IT
WILL BRING SOME COLDER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NBM
25TH TO 75TH TEMPERATURE RANGE IS AROUND NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL COMPARED TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER WE HAVE HAD THE
LAST WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY -RA TO THE REGION. -SN IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AT KXWA WHILE -RASN IS POSSIBLE AT KMOT AND KDIK.
ALTHOUGH -RA IS MORE LIKELY THAN -SN. LOWERING CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AS LOW STRATUS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO IFR CONDITIONS AND DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO BACK TO EASTERLY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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