873
FXUS63 KBIS 152338
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
538 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH A 90 PERCENT OR
GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO NEAR NORMAL
THEN TREND COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE ALSO IS AN INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PRETTY MUCH COVER THE STATE, WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. SHOULD BE A
QUIET EVENING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND AN EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND COULD SNEAK
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING, BUT MORE LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL DAY
FOR A WHILE AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE NORTHWEST WITH A 70-90
PERCENT CHANCE. WHILE THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST HAS A 30-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND THE SOUTHEAST HAS THE
LOWEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AROUND 10-15 PERCENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER
TO SNOW SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND
THE LOW. THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A
SNOW MIXES IN. IF PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO START EARLIER INCREASING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WHILE LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM BANDED SNOW. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE LOWER
THAN 10:1 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SNOW TRANSITION RESULTING IN
LOWER ACCUMULATIONS, BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT A 10:1
RATIO WILL BE MORE LIKELY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWN SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S NORTHWEST WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS
WHILE THE SOUTHEAST COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLIGHTLY WARM BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK AMPLITUDE
RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT
WEEK. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOWS TRACK HAS SHIFTED EVERY RUN
RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION AND TIMING. THIS DUE TO
AN AMPLIFICATION ISSUE THE MODELS ARE HAVING DUE TO AN OMEGA
BLOCK SET UP. THE NEWEST 12Z ENSEMBLES PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW
HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OUTLIERS. RIGHT NOW PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UP. THE
NBM HAS INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER
FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONE THING WE KNOW ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IT
WILL BRING SOME COLDER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NBM
25TH TO 75TH TEMPERATURE RANGE IS AROUND NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL COMPARED TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER WE HAVE HAD THE
LAST WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO KXWA AND KMOT LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SNOW.
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT REMAINING TAF SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH
AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS. LLWS THROUGH 06 UTC AT
KBIS AND FROM 03-09 UTC AT KJMS. LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AT
AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN, THEN
A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL DEVELOP AT KXWA AND SPREAD EAST TO KMOT,
ENDING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL ONLY SEE
A PASSING CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY. EAST WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT WEST TO
NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...TWH
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