043
FXUS63 KBIS 161151
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE NORTHWEST.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THEN TREND COOLER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE
BEST CHANCES ARE PRESENTLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STILL, UNCERTAINLY IN LOCATION, TIMING, AND AMOUNTS
OF ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS HIGH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MOST RETURNS THAT WERE PRESENT A FEW HOURS AGO HAVE DISSIPATED.
HOWEVER, MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST, WITH HINTS OF ADDITIONAL NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE FAR WEST CENTRAL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO LEAVE POPS AS-IS FOR
NOW. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, ALTHOUGH BASED ON LIMITED
WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS, NOT A LOT IS REACHING THE SURFACE ON
THE ND SIDE YET. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE COLUMN
SHOULD SATURATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE TO FEW HOURS. WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR 40 DEGREES, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD START AS RAIN. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW PROPAGATES TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WRAP
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.
SNOW RATIOS REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SYSTEM, THOUGH
MAY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 10 TO 1 LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT, CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OF WET SNOW MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH
CENTRAL. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED BANDING, HOWEVER,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
SHOULD ANY BANDING OCCUR, LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY, AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA, FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS IN
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND NORTH ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
THE WESTERN LOW WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY
POTENTIALLY STALLING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EJECTING OFF TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT, NBM PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF 50 TO 70
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA ARE IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE WEST, THEN EXPANDING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, AND ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED, ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TWO POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OTHER THAN SNOW FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, ONE OF THE OTHER BIGGER STORIES FOR NEXT
WEEK IS A COOLING TREND. NBM 25TH/75TH ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE
SPREADS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH, BUT STILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS STARTING TUESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE WORKWEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL
ND, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MOST FOG AT THE MOMENT IS
MVFR/IFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF DROPS TO A QUARTER MILE HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND GRADUALLY EXPAND
EASTWARD WHILE ALSO TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. BREEZY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page