200
FXUS63 KBIS 170326
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
926 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN DURING
PRECIPITATION ONSET, EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL
COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THEN TREND COOLER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE
BEST CHANCES ARE PRESENTLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINLY REMAINS IN LOCATION, TIMING, AND
AMOUNTS OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
- GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO RETURN MID NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW AND RAIN TO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA CONTINUES TO MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
BOTTINEAU DOWN TO SHERIDAN COUNTY. FRONTOGENSIS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE RESULTING IN DECREASING SNOW. ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH MCHENRY AND PIERCE CONTINUES
WITH SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. A DEFORMATION
BAND HAS SET UP IN SOUTHERN RENVILLE COUNTY THE LAST HOUR
RESULTING IN INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL, BUT DRIZZLE CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD. EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
RENVILLE COUNTY DUE TO BANDED SNOW AND DROPPED THE FAR NORTHWEST
AS SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THAT AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
PRECIPITATION FROM A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES
TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST AND GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94, WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG,
MIST AND DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THIS PRECIPITATION. BANDED SNOW HAS
BROUGHT A WIDE RANGE OF SNOWFALL AND IMPACTS ALREADY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ND, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THIS EVENING.
THUS WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO EXPAND THIS ADVISORY ACROSS THE
REMAINING NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THIS SNOW TRACKS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. HREF 12 HOUR SNOWFALL STAMPS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THE
NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME PACKETS OF 4+ INCHES NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER. SNOWFALL RATES IN THE HREF ARE ALSO NOT
FORECAST AS HIGH AS IN THE NORTHWEST. DYNAMICS WISE, WARMER AIR
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL MAY PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW, THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. FRONTOGENESIS ALSO LOOKS TO START
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, WHICH MAY BE WHY THE HREF
IS NOT SHOWING AS HIGH OF ACCUMULATIONS. GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY EXPANSION OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING. PRECIPITATION THEN
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER, AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG OR MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE WITH THESE LINGERING CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY FOG OR DRIZZLE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS
ELEVATED WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INCREASING DRY AIR SHOULD
LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOWER 30S
SOUTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY AND MILD DAY
FOR SUNDAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 40S TO
PERHAPS LOWER 50S. AREAS WITH FRESH SNOW MAY NOT WARM UP AS
MUCH AND STAY COOLER. SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AND COOL, WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. MONDAY THEN BECOMES A TRANSITION DAY TO WHAT
COULD BECOME A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD FOR MOST AREAS AND IN THE 40S AND
50S. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL MORE ACTIVE PATTERN,
CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY RETURN TO THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST.
A SWITCH TO A BROAD TROUGH PATTERN WITH A SURFACE LOW, WHOSE
TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN, COULD THEN BRING A PATTERN SHIFT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. WHAT REMAINS CERTAIN
IS THE SHIFT TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. NBM SPREADS REMAIN BROAD
BUT ARE GENERALLY NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THUS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THIS DYNAMIC PATTERN
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING SOME BREEZY TO WINDY DAYS ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD WHERE ECMWF EFI VALUES ARE NOW
ELEVATED TO AROUND 0.8 AND THE SHIFT OF TAILS IS AROUND A 1. THE
UNCERTAINTY STILL RESIDES IN THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
MORE SPECIFICALLY THE CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW. AS STATED IN
RECENT DAYS THIS DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHER ROCKIES, THE RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
AND THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE BROAD TROUGH. OF NOTE TODAY THOUGH
ARE SOME INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MID
NEXT WEEK. CLUSTERS ARE NOW SHOWING ABOUT AN 80% CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE STATE, WITH THE REMAINING 20%
COMING FROM THE LOW TRACKING MORE SOUTH. THIS MAY SEEM LIKE AN
INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, THE HIGHER SNOWFALL CLUSTERS
HAVE HIGHER BLENDS OF THE ECM AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY MORE ROBUST FOR ND. THUS OUR MESSAGING REMAINS SIMILAR
FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW THAT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY THAT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE
MAY BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING IN THIS IMPACTFUL SNOW OCCURRING,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH SNOW AND EXACT LOCATIONS STILL
REMAINS LOW. THOSE WITH TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR INTERESTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN TUNE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
A SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE BRINGING FORTH IFR CONDITIONS AND -SN. -SN IS STILL
POSSIBLE AT KMOT AND KJMS TONIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN LOW. -SN WILL END TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS WILL HANG AROUND
RESULTING IN PERSISTING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESS EASTWARD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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