854
FXUS63 KBIS 171544
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
944 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S TODAY
AND MONDAY, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, THEN TREND MUCH COLDER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, RETURN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THERE IS AROUND A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SIX INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE STATE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINLY REMAINS IN THE EXACT
LOCATIONS, TIMING, AND ANY RAIN/SNOW TOTALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO ERODE, AS DOES THE PATCHY
FOG ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LOOK FOR THIS CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING IN THESE AREAS. WESTERN AREAS ARE SEEING
SOME INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE
IN MONTANA. THESE CLOUDS COULD LINGER TODAY. THERE ARE SOME WEAK
RETURNS ON THE RADAR WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IN MONTANA. DRY AIR
AT THE SURFACE WOULD MAKE PRECIPITATION TOUGH TO HIT THE GROUND
TODAY, HOWEVER A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWEST AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTH, THOUGH SEEMS
PRETTY LOCALIZED OVERALL. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE OVERCAST
SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE LOW 50S SOUTH. SIMILAR
HIGHS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS WELL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY
BEGIN ENTERING WESTERN ND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AN INTERESTING PATTERN WHERE
BLOCKING UPPER HIGH OVER FLORIDA EJECTS A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM
NEW MEXICO, THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS, POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN ND/NORTHWESTERN MN, THEN EJECTING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, THIS MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO ENTER THE WEST MONDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
AND FINALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY
OF SIX INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 40 TO 60
PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE STATE, MAINLY THE NORTH. THE
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW IS AROUND 40 TO 80
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE STATE.
WHAT MIGHT BE EVEN MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE EXACT SNOW TOTALS IS
BLOWING SNOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROJECTED TO TIGHTEN
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH NBM WINDS ALREADY GENERATING GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH IN THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY, AND UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THESE VALUES MAY EVEN WIND UP BEING A LITTLE
LOW WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. REGARDLESS, SHOULD THIS PLAY OUT,
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME PRETTY CRUMMY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ANYWHERE ANY SNOW FALLS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED ONCE
AGAIN, HOWEVER, THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF
THE LOW TAKES A MORE EASTWARD TRACK, THEN IMPACTS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE LESS. IF IT TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND STALLS
OR POTENTIALLY RETROGRADES OVER EASTERN ND/WESTERN MN, THEN
IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHER.
DECREASING ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREADS SUGGEST INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ARE FAVORED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S, WHILE LOWS ARE
FAVORED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MOST NIGHTS.
THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY HOW MUCH FRESH
SNOW FALLS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT OVER ALL AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER, WITH MVFR/IFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE RIVER. LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN
THE NORTH, THOUGH HAS MOSTLY MAINTAINED VFR VISIBILITY. STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. ONCE
ANY STRATUS ERODES AND FOG DISSIPATES, VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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