368
FXUS63 KBIS 180402
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1002 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SOME
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW REMAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES FOR SIX INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ARE AROUND 20 TO 60
PERCENT, MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINLY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATIONS, TIMING,
AND SNOW TOTALS.
- STRONG WINDS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION. IT'S POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO FOG INDICATED ON SATELLITE.
THERE ARE SOME LOW T/TD SPREADS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH, WHICH SHOULD HELP
MINIMIZE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG IN THE
FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. CURRENT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING ANY FOG
TONIGHT AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE FOG AT THIS TIME, BUT PASS ALONG.
SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS CERTAINLY CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FAR NORTH THOUGH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE
THIS EVENING BRINGING SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN
AREAS WITH MELTING SNOW COVER TODAY IN THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
ONE MORE MILD DAY IS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S. AN ENCROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
THE WEST AND PERHAPS SOME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS. THIS COLD FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
RESULT COULD BRING A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EAST FROM THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LEAST DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AND
LOCATION OF THIS SNOW WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW THE COLD FRONT
AND BROAD LOW INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER.
BROAD TROUGH AND LARGE SURFACE LOW THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN AT LEAST NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. THIS IS DUE TO A NOW 50/50 SPLIT IN CLUSTERS SHOWING
A MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION (MORE SNOW), VERSUS A MORE EAST AND
NORTHERN SOLUTION (LESS SNOW). ONCE AGAIN THE CLUSTERS WITH MORE
ECM AND CANADIAN MEMBERS ARE SHOWING MORE SNOW THAN CLUSTERS
THAT INCORPORATE MORE GEFS MEMBERS. EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THE NBM IS SHOWING A GENERAL 20 TO 70%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, AND
A 20 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS. THESE PERCENTAGES
MAY BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW TO
THE REGION. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN ARE THE SIGNAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF EFI VALUES HAVE
INCREASED FOR WEDNESDAY TO ABOVE 0.9 IN SOME AREAS WITH A SHIFT
OF TAILS OF 1. LOCAL RESEARCH WOULD SUGGEST THIS COULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH WIND DAY. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD BRING BLOWING
SNOW AND FURTHER WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. STARTED TO MESSAGE THE
PROBABILITIES OF THESE IMPACTS MORE TODAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR WIND OR WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL DROP EACH
DAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
FLAT RIDGING OR PERHAPS EVEN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD THEN BE FOUND
TO END THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND DIMINISH WINDS SOMEWHAT. THIS MAY ALSO LINGER
COLD ARE ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT NBM FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE
20S AND 30S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THESE COOLER CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES HINTING AT ANOTHER TROUGH PATTERN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS WELL. THIS COULD RETURN CHANCES FOR SNOW, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT TROUGH
REMAIN MODERATE. CURRENT NBM PROBS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW NEXT
WEEK ARE ALSO ONLY LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTH
WHERE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME PROBABILITIES ARE WAY
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT KXWA AND KMOT.
ON MONDAY A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
MOST AREAS. MONDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WINDS AT KXWA AND KDIK WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH. FARTHER EAST, THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST, THEN NORTH TO NORTHWEST,
AGAIN AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. AT KXWA, LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
AROUND 00 UTC TUESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY AROUND 03 UTC. AT
KDIK LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN AROUND 03 UTC TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. AT KJMS,
LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVE AROUND 03 UTC. KMOT AND KBIS
LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06 UTC TUESDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...TWH
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