660
FXUS63 KBIS 180957
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
357 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BOTTINEAU, ROLETTE, MCHENRY, AND
PIERCE COUNTIES. IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOW, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS, AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY
- CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS REMAINS LOWER FOR COUNTIES TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH. HOWEVER, VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE DURING ANY SNOW THAT FALLS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER FLORIDA WILL EJECT STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE FROM NEW
MEXICO, THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND INTO EASTERN ND/WESTERN
MN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE EJECTING OFF TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS,
THE MAIN UPDATE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR BOTTINEAU, ROLETTE, MCHENRY, AND PIERCE
COUNTIES FROM 9 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY. THESE ARE THE
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IN SEEING AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW
HAS INCREASED TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO SNOWFALL
TOTALS, VERY STRONG WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
ESPECIALLY WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. AND ESPECIALLY AS SNOW RATIOS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO GREATER THAN 15 TO 1 LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
FOR COUNTIES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH, WHICH ARE ALSO
NORTH OR EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND NORTH OF I94, THERE IS
A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW. WITH
FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH, EVEN THESE LESSER AMOUNTS
OF SNOW COULD CAUSE HIGH IMPACTS. HOWEVER, WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
SNOW TOTALS REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH IN THESE AREAS, HELD OFF ON
ANY FURTHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
IN REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS, THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, NEITHER CAA
NOR PRESSURE RISES ARE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, WHILE THE 0Z EFI HAS
DECREASED A BIT AND IS BACK UNDER .9. THEREFORE, STUCK WITH
GENERALLY 40 TO 55 MPH GUSTS THAT THE NBM GENERATED, WITH THE
STRONGEST VALUES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET. AFTER WHICH, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL, A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S, HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S. HIGHS ARE THEN LIKELY TO BE
IN THE 20S MOST DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, THOUGH 30 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AS WELL. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE
TEENS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS, MOST NIGHTS THIS
WEEK STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTH
WHERE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME PROBABILITIES ARE WAY
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT KXWA AND KMOT.
ON MONDAY A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
MOST AREAS. MONDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WINDS AT KXWA AND KDIK WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH. FARTHER EAST, THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST, THEN NORTH TO NORTHWEST,
AGAIN AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. AT KXWA, LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
AROUND 00 UTC TUESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY AROUND 03 UTC. AT
KDIK LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN AROUND 03 UTC TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. AT KJMS,
LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVE AROUND 03 UTC. KMOT AND KBIS
LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06 UTC TUESDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-013.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TWH
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