675
FXUS63 KBIS 181559
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
959 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BOTTINEAU, ROLETTE, MCHENRY, AND
PIERCE COUNTIES. IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOW, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS, AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY
- CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS REMAINS LOWER FOR COUNTIES TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH. HOWEVER, VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE DURING ANY SNOW THAT FALLS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. BAND OF RAIN HAS FORMED IN
EASTERN MT, ALTHOUGH IS A TOUCH DELAYED GETTING INTO WESTERN ND.
MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE
SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO MOVED INTO THE CWA. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS
ON THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER FLORIDA WILL EJECT STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE FROM NEW
MEXICO, THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND INTO EASTERN ND/WESTERN
MN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE EJECTING OFF TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS,
THE MAIN UPDATE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR BOTTINEAU, ROLETTE, MCHENRY, AND PIERCE
COUNTIES FROM 9 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY. THESE ARE THE
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IN SEEING AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW
HAS INCREASED TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO SNOWFALL
TOTALS, VERY STRONG WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
ESPECIALLY WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. AND ESPECIALLY AS SNOW RATIOS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO GREATER THAN 15 TO 1 LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
FOR COUNTIES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH, WHICH ARE ALSO
NORTH OR EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND NORTH OF I94, THERE IS
A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW. WITH
FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH, EVEN THESE LESSER AMOUNTS
OF SNOW COULD CAUSE HIGH IMPACTS. HOWEVER, WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
SNOW TOTALS REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH IN THESE AREAS, HELD OFF ON
ANY FURTHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
IN REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS, THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, NEITHER CAA
NOR PRESSURE RISES ARE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, WHILE THE 0Z EFI HAS
DECREASED A BIT AND IS BACK UNDER .9. THEREFORE, STUCK WITH
GENERALLY 40 TO 55 MPH GUSTS THAT THE NBM GENERATED, WITH THE
STRONGEST VALUES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET. AFTER WHICH, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL, A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S, HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S. HIGHS ARE THEN LIKELY TO BE
IN THE 20S MOST DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, THOUGH 30 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AS WELL. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE
TEENS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS, MOST NIGHTS THIS
WEEK STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE STATE. LIGHT
RAIN MAY ENTER WESTERN ND LATER THIS MORNING WITH BETTER CHANCES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT, AS POTENT
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE REGION, MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN WORKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND
EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM, WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE WHILE ANY
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-013.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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