250
FXUS63 KBIS 190401
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1001 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BECOMING
ALL SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SNOW CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE IN NORTH AND EAST, WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES
IN THE SOUTHWEST.
- TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, AND
A GENERAL 1 TO 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE (20 TO 40%) OF SNOW MAY RETURN THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
RAIN OVER WESTERN ND IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. RAIN WAS REPORTED AT
BEACH AND WILLISTON WITH LIGHT SNOW REPORTED JUST ACROSS THE
BORDER AT PLENTYWOOD, GLENDIVE AND BAKER. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A RAIN SNOW MIX SOON OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRECIP HERE REMAINS LIGHT THOUGH.
IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN LIFTING NORTH AND WEST MUCH QUICKER. HERE WE UPDATED POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TO SPREAD POPS
FARTHER WEST THAN FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL, MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST LATE THIS
EVENING. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH WESTERN ND EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER TO THE EAST, A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS QUICKLY PUSHING
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST ND. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF
RAIN ARE HANDLED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THEREFORE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPDATES EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, BESIDES THE CLOUDY SKIES, WE ARE EXPECTING MILD
EVENING TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. A LAST CHANCE TO ENJOY THE
NICE WEATHER BEFORE STRONG WINDS, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND
RAIN AND SNOW BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE FIRST WINTER STORM FOR MOST STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT MUCH OF
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
BRINGING RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT, WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RAIN MOVES INTO
THE EAST. TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE WEATHER MAKER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS WIDESPREAD SNOW TO MUCH OF THE CWA,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN AREAS. THE RESULTANT
GRADIENT ALSO BRINGS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS FRONTOGENESIS BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOW AND HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH.
GIVEN THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WIDESPREAD WIND AND WINTER IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED. NBM PROBS FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES ARE GENERALLY 70
TO 90 PERCENT IN AREAS WHERE THIS MORNINGS WINTER STORM WATCH
WAS. THUS THIS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. NBM
PROBS FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES ARE GENERALLY 40 TO 90 PERCENT
ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. THESE
SAME AREAS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. THUS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE AREAS DUE TO THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.
STARTED THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT COULD
TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW IN THESE AREAS EARLIER THAN OTHERS. A
FEW OF THESE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
WARNING CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS MEET STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
GOING FORWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA HAS ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT START UP UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THESE REMAINING AREAS STARTING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS THESE AREAS ARE IN A WIND
ADVISORY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME OF
THESE AREAS MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. FOR NOW MADE THIS AN ADDITIONAL DETAIL WITHING THE
WIND ADVISORY. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S
AND GENERALLY IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY. LOWS DIP INTO THE TEENS
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND COULD DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS
COULD EVEN BRING WIND CHILLS NEAR TO BELOW ZERO.
WEAK RIDGING TRANSITIONING TO FLAT RIDGING THEN POSSIBLY NORTHWEST
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND EACH DAY, ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH PATTERN IS THEN
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MAY RETURN CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOME WITH NBM CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST 1 OF 60% NORTH TO 20% SOUTH. CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES
DROP TO 10 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG
WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING BEYOND THE 06Z WED TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN HAS MOVED INTO KJMS AND KXWA LATE THIS
EVENING. IFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED INTO KDIK. WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER CEILINGS AND THE LOW CEILINGS ARE
CURRENTLY QUITE RAGGED SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE EARLY ON THE EXTENT
OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER, AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT THE
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN ND AND THE JRV. THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KBIS
AND KMOT MAY BE THE LAST TO EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT.
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING, AND 25 TO 40 KTS FROM MID MORNING AND
BEYOND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL, INCLUDING KDIK AND KBIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
KEEP CEILINGS AT THESE SITES THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER WESTERN ND TONIGHT AND OVER
CENTRAL ND TUESDAY. KMOT IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE GREATEST IMPACTS
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
WITH IFR-LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS BLO 1SM IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ003-011-021>023-025.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST /5
PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ017>020-031>037-040>048-050-051.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...TWH
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