715
FXUS63 KBIS 190946
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
346 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT IN
THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR DETAILS
AT YOUR LOCATION.
- RAIN WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TODAY, LIKELY
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY MID-AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW CHANCES
PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH, LESS
THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, AND A GENERAL 1 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 55 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BRING WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S, AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VERTICALLY STACKED STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MARCHING UP THE EASTERN PLAINS STATES TODAY BEFORE LIKELY
STALLING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. PRESENTLY, RAIN IS
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN PARTS OF WESTERN ND. PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN
ND IS STILL PRIMARILY FORCED OFF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHILE
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST IS MORE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ITSELF.
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH TODAY, EXPECT THE LOW CENTER
TO BECOME THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE STATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN,
WHILE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER, IT WOULDN'T
BE ENTIRELY SURPRISING IF THERE ARE A FEW OBSERVATIONS REPORTING
60 PLUS MPH GUSTS WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ANYWHERE SNOW IS
FALLING, ESPECIALLY ONCE RATIOS INCREASES TO MORE THAN 15 TO 1
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH AS A TROWAL WRAPS AROUND INTO THE STATE. WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A BIT HIGHER SNOW TOTALS AND VERY STRONG WINDS,
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN BURKE, RENVILLE, AND WARD
COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. THE
PRESENT THINKING REMAINS THAT SNOW TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10
INCH RANGE OVER THE WARNED AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND
LIKELY FULLY END LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN
TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY EJECTS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT IN THE WEST AND
BREEZY AT AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE EAST.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED LATELY, MUCH COLDER AIR IS IN STORE FOR
THE STATE WITH AND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. EARLY MORNING HIGHS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THEN EITHER HOLD STEADY OR GRADUALLY DECREASE. LOWS
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ARE PROGGED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 20S AND 30S. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THIS WEEKEND MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES, WHICH ARE PRESENTLY MOST FAVORED IN
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING BEYOND THE 06Z WED TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN HAS MOVED INTO KJMS AND KXWA LATE THIS
EVENING. IFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED INTO KDIK. WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER CEILINGS AND THE LOW CEILINGS ARE
CURRENTLY QUITE RAGGED SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE EARLY ON THE EXTENT
OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER, AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT THE
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN ND AND THE JRV. THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KBIS
AND KMOT MAY BE THE LAST TO EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT.
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING, AND 25 TO 40 KTS FROM MID MORNING AND
BEYOND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL, INCLUDING KDIK AND KBIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
KEEP CEILINGS AT THESE SITES THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER WESTERN ND TONIGHT AND OVER
CENTRAL ND TUESDAY. KMOT IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE GREATEST IMPACTS
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
WITH IFR-LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS BLO 1SM IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001-
009-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ002>005-011>013.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ017>020-031>037-040>048-050-
051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ021>023-025.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TWH
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