126
FXUS63 KBIS 191535
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT IN
THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR DETAILS
AT YOUR LOCATION.
- RAIN WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TODAY, LIKELY
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW CHANCES
PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH, LESS
THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, AND A GENERAL 1 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 55 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BRING WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S, AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
DELAYED THE POPS FROM LEAVING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST BY AN
HOUR BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND OBS. IT IS STILL MODERATE
SNOW IN DICKINSON AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE EVERYWHERE BUT THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY IS SNOWING NOW. WE MIGHT EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH IF SNOW STARTS TO ACCUMULATE FASTER IN
THE CENTRAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE RAIN (SOUTH CENTRAL) AND LIGHT SNOW
(SOUTHWEST) ARE OCCURRING. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VERTICALLY STACKED STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MARCHING UP THE EASTERN PLAINS STATES TODAY BEFORE LIKELY
STALLING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. PRESENTLY, RAIN IS
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN PARTS OF WESTERN ND. PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN
ND IS STILL PRIMARILY FORCED OFF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHILE
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST IS MORE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ITSELF.
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH TODAY, EXPECT THE LOW CENTER
TO BECOME THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE STATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN,
WHILE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER, IT WOULDN'T
BE ENTIRELY SURPRISING IF THERE ARE A FEW OBSERVATIONS REPORTING
60 PLUS MPH GUSTS WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ANYWHERE SNOW IS
FALLING, ESPECIALLY ONCE RATIOS INCREASES TO MORE THAN 15 TO 1
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH AS A TROWAL WRAPS AROUND INTO THE STATE. WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A BIT HIGHER SNOW TOTALS AND VERY STRONG WINDS,
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN BURKE, RENVILLE, AND WARD
COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. THE
PRESENT THINKING REMAINS THAT SNOW TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10
INCH RANGE OVER THE WARNED AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND
LIKELY FULLY END LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN
TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY EJECTS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT IN THE WEST AND
BREEZY AT AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE EAST.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED LATELY, MUCH COLDER AIR IS IN STORE FOR
THE STATE WITH AND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. EARLY MORNING HIGHS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THEN EITHER HOLD STEADY OR GRADUALLY DECREASE. LOWS
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ARE PROGGED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 20S AND 30S. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THIS WEEKEND MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES, WHICH ARE PRESENTLY MOST FAVORED IN
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. PRESENTLY, LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF EASTERN
ND, WITH SNOW IN THE WEST, CENTRAL, AND NORTH. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY END OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH BY
NOON, WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT RETURNING THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST, AND A 70 PERCENT CHANCE IT
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY
STRONG THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, AND PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY IN AREAS WHILE ANY SNOW IS FALLING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001-
009-010-021>023-025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ002>005-
011>013.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ017>020-031>037-040>048-050-051.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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