869
FXUS63 KBIS 192057
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
257 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND ADVISORY ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR DETAILS AT
YOUR LOCATION.
- TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 12 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL, LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, AND A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH EXPECTED. WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY,
CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S, AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITS OVER MINNESOTA AT THE
SURFACE, AND TILTING BACK TO MONTANA THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS.
A STATIONARY FRONT SITS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IN NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA.
SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, EXCEPT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT BANDS OF SNOW RIGHT NOW,
BOTH ANGLED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, ROTATING WITH THE LOW. THE
MAIN BAND IS ABOUT WILLISTON TO OAKES, THE OTHER IS ABOUT DUNN
CENTER TO LINTON. SNOW TOTALS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE LAST
FORECAST WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 12 INCHES AND
ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE PROBABILITY OF 12 INCHES IS
40 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
RECEIVE NOT MUCH MORE SNOW, MAYBE 1 INCH TOTAL. WHAT HAS CHANGE
IS THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS EXPANDED ONE TIER SOUTH, ALONG
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SINCE THE 3 TO 5 INCHES IS MORE
WIDESPREAD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY WINDY WITH GUST UP TO 55 MPH CWA-WIDE.
THIS WILL CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN
COUNTRY. WE LIMITED THE BLOWING SNOW FORECAST, BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EVALUATED OVERNIGHT AS MORE SNOW ACCUMULATES, AND
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND
MINNESOTA, CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SNOW IN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO STAY TIGHT, LEAVING WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THIS.
SNOW IS FALLING LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE LAPSE RATES AND
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE IS NOT STRONG. AFTER SUNSET LAPSE RATES
INCREASE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE INCREASE.
THIS IS WHEN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECASTED SNOW WILL FALL. THE
SNOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT
THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE ARE USED TO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S, THE SOUTHWEST
COULD GET BACK TO NEAR 40 BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW SLIDES EAST
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY. SNOW LOOKS LIKELY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES,
BUT WE WILL GET A BETTER IDEA WHEN WE GET CLOSER. ANOTHER WEAK
COLORADO LOW OR SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, BUT THE MODELS TO NOT AGREE ON THIS. LOOKING INTO THE
EXTENDED, WE COULD HAVE BELOW AVERAGE COLD FOR THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND. THE CPC ALREADY HAS A HAZARDOUS COLD WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH FALLING SNOW AND WEST WINDS 30-45KTS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. WINDS MIGHT CALM DOWN
TO 35KTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ001-009-010-019-020-025-035>037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ002>005-
011>013-021>023.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ017-
018-031>034-040>048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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