472
FXUS63 KBIS 200348
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND ADVISORY ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR DETAILS AT
YOUR LOCATION.
- TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 12 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL, LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, AND A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH EXPECTED. WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW, POSSIBLY CREATING
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S, AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING. CURRENT HAZARDS OVERALL
REMAIN ON TRACK. SOME AREAS IN A WIND ADVISORY ARE STARTING TO
SEE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO A
MILE OR LESS. PERHAPS AT SOME POINT THESE AREAS WILL NEED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH FOR NOW MAINTAINED THE CURRENT
WIND WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. OF NOTE...LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD GET INTO THE TEENS FOR SOME WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS. WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING, WIND CHILLS
COULD BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FOR SOME AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
REPORTS OF QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY WITH THESE STRONG WINDS AND
SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SNOW IN THESE AREAS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CENTRAL, NORTHERN, AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE AREAS COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW, ALTHOUGH ARE NOT REPORTING THE LOWER VISIBILITIES
OF THE WEST. GIVEN THE PATCHY TO SCATTERED LOW VISIBILITY
REPORTS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE WITHER WEATHER
PRODUCTS. DID, HOWEVER, ADD THE MENTION OF NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN ALL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY DETERIORATING TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH TO A PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
60 MPH GUSTS. MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORIES TO THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITS OVER MINNESOTA AT THE
SURFACE, AND TILTING BACK TO MONTANA THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS.
A STATIONARY FRONT SITS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IN NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA.
SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, EXCEPT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT BANDS OF SNOW RIGHT NOW,
BOTH ANGLED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, ROTATING WITH THE LOW. THE
MAIN BAND IS ABOUT WILLISTON TO OAKES, THE OTHER IS ABOUT DUNN
CENTER TO LINTON. SNOW TOTALS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE LAST
FORECAST WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 12 INCHES AND
ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE PROBABILITY OF 12 INCHES IS
40 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
RECEIVE NOT MUCH MORE SNOW, MAYBE 1 INCH TOTAL. WHAT HAS CHANGE
IS THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS EXPANDED ONE TIER SOUTH, ALONG
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SINCE THE 3 TO 5 INCHES IS MORE
WIDESPREAD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY WINDY WITH GUST UP TO 55 MPH CWA-WIDE.
THIS WILL CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN
COUNTRY. WE LIMITED THE BLOWING SNOW FORECAST, BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EVALUATED OVERNIGHT AS MORE SNOW ACCUMULATES, AND
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND
MINNESOTA, CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SNOW IN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO STAY TIGHT, LEAVING WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THIS.
SNOW IS FALLING LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE LAPSE RATES AND
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE IS NOT STRONG. AFTER SUNSET LAPSE RATES
INCREASE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE INCREASE.
THIS IS WHEN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECASTED SNOW WILL FALL. THE
SNOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT
THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE ARE USED TO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S, THE SOUTHWEST
COULD GET BACK TO NEAR 40 BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW SLIDES EAST
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY. SNOW LOOKS LIKELY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES,
BUT WE WILL GET A BETTER IDEA WHEN WE GET CLOSER. ANOTHER WEAK
COLORADO LOW OR SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, BUT THE MODELS TO NOT AGREE ON THIS. LOOKING INTO THE
EXTENDED, WE COULD HAVE BELOW AVERAGE COLD FOR THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND. THE CPC ALREADY HAS A HAZARDOUS COLD WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AS A RESULT TO MOST TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FOUND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN SEE LIFR VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING SNOW, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS LIMITED IN PLACING THIS
LOW OF VISIBILITY IN TAFS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE
FOUND THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 KTS FOR MOST
SITES.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ001-009-010-017>020-025-031>037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ002>005-
011>013-021>023.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ040>048-050-051.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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