106
FXUS63 KBIS 200927
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
FAR SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR
DETAILS AT YOUR LOCATION.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL IN AND NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH EXPECTED TODAY,
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. BLOWING SNOW WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 20S AND 30S, AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
ABOVE ZERO. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO START NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER.
- A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS WEEKEND IN
THE NORTH, WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS STALLED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA AS
EXPECTED RESULTING IN WRAP-AROUND LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING OVER ALL
BUT FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND. THOUGH OCCASIONAL BANDS OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL HAVE AND MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN VERY STRONG
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH STILL
OCCURRING. WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE LOW PRESSURE SHOOTS OFF/REDEVELOPS RAPIDLY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW MOSTLY
ENDING BY THE EVENING HOURS AND WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD FOR
THE MOMENT, ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED AS WINDS/SNOW END
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.
AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, A RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE THERMAL RIDGE ISN'T PROGGED TO ADEQUATELY
AMPLIFY INTO THE STATE. AS A RESULT, MOST LOCATIONS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHILE THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY BE WARMER AND IN THE
30S.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY OFF NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL BREAK THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, AND EJECT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT SNOW OFF THIS COULD START IN THE NORTHWEST
AS SOON AS FRIDAY EVENING, THOUGH IS MOST FAVORED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENTLY, NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A
60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND A GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CURRENT SNOW PROBABILITIES DECREASE
RAPIDLY FURTHER SOUTH.
BEYOND SUNDAY, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE FAVORED SOLUTION IS
A BIT COLDER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK IN COMPARISON TO THIS WEEK,
WHICH MAINLY MEANS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. HOWEVER, NBM
25TH/75TH PERCENTILE SPREADS FOR NEXT WEEK GENERALLY REMAIN IN
EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES VALIDATING HIGHER LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN
SAID MODEL DIVERGENCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AS A RESULT TO MOST TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FOUND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SNOW THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW COULD BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO BE FOUND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, DIMINISHING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 KTS FOR MOST SITES.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ001-009-010-017>020-025-031>037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ002>005-011>013-021>023.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040>048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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