027
FXUS63 KBIS 201800
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1200 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
FAR SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR
DETAILS AT YOUR LOCATION.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL IN AND NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH EXPECTED
TODAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. BLOWING SNOW WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 20S AND 30S, AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
ABOVE ZERO. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO START NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER.
- A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS WEEKEND IN
THE NORTH, WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FOSTER COUNTY WERE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRING AT 6PM WITH THE REST OF THE HEADLINES. WE WILL
SEE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL BAD WITH WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW ALMOST
EVERYWHERE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST, WITH VERY
GUSTY WINDS EVERYWHERE. WE'VE SEEN REPORTS OF OVER 60 MPH GUST
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
STILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. A BLIZZARD WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE WARNING AREA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
LATER TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. SOME OBSERVATIONS FURTHER WEST
SHOW LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL, ALTHOUGH BASED ON THE
WILLISTON AND BOWMAN RADARS, BLOWING SNOW ALONE IS THE MOST
LIKELY CULPRIT. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS STALLED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA AS
EXPECTED RESULTING IN WRAP-AROUND LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING OVER ALL
BUT FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND. THOUGH OCCASIONAL BANDS OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL HAVE AND MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN VERY STRONG
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH STILL
OCCURRING. WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE LOW PRESSURE SHOOTS OFF/REDEVELOPS RAPIDLY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW MOSTLY
ENDING BY THE EVENING HOURS AND WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD FOR
THE MOMENT, ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED AS WINDS/SNOW END
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.
AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, A RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE THERMAL RIDGE ISN'T PROGGED TO ADEQUATELY
AMPLIFY INTO THE STATE. AS A RESULT, MOST LOCATIONS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHILE THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY BE WARMER AND IN THE
30S.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY OFF NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL BREAK THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, AND EJECT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT SNOW OFF THIS COULD START IN THE NORTHWEST
AS SOON AS FRIDAY EVENING, THOUGH IS MOST FAVORED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENTLY, NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A
60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND A GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CURRENT SNOW PROBABILITIES DECREASE
RAPIDLY FURTHER SOUTH.
BEYOND SUNDAY, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE FAVORED SOLUTION IS
A BIT COLDER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK IN COMPARISON TO THIS WEEK,
WHICH MAINLY MEANS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. HOWEVER, NBM
25TH/75TH PERCENTILE SPREADS FOR NEXT WEEK GENERALLY REMAIN IN
EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES VALIDATING HIGHER LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN
SAID MODEL DIVERGENCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THE WEST WILL SLOWLY GO BKN
THEN SCT THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE THE REST WILL STAY MVFR. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO BLSN AND 45KT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS THEN SHOULD GO VFR AND SCT030.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ001-009-010-017>020-031>037.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-
011>013-021>023-025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040>048-050-051.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...SMITH
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