025
FXUS63 KBIS 202057
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
257 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- 1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
STILL TODAY.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, THEN RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 20S AND 30S, AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
ABOVE ZERO. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO START NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER.
- A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS WEEKEND IN
THE NORTH, WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
CURRENTLY THE SURFACE LOW HAS RETROGRADED BACK WEST AND IT
SITTING ON THE MINNESOTA CANADIAN BORDER. ALOFT THE LOW IS
CLOSER TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SNOW IS CURRENTLY WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. LATE THIS MORNING WE HAD REPORTS OF
5 TO 7 INCHES BETWEEN MINOT AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. NO REPORTS FROM THE MOUNTAINS YET. THEY COULD GET
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE WE ARE ALL DONE. HIGHER PRESSURE
HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST WITH AN INCOMING RIDGE.
THIS HAS ERODED THE CLOUDS AND IS DIMINISHING THE WINDS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD EAST. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER A LARGE FLAT RIDGE THAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRODUCING SNOW IN
NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF NOW, THE PATH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ACT LIKE A
CLIPPER, DIPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MEASURABLE SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200, WITH THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL RIGHT ON THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LOOKS LIKE
THE INTERSTATE WILL BE THE SNOW CUTOFF. AREAS LIKE BISMARCK OVER
TO GRASSY BUTTE ONLY HAVE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF
SNOW. ON THE CANADIAN BORDER THE PROBABILITIES OF 4 INCHES ARE
70 PERCENT, AND 50 PERCENT FOR 6 INCHES. THERE IS A LARGE RANGE
OF SNOWFALL. THE 25TH TO 75TH IS ROUGHLY 3 INCHES TO 10 INCHES
ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THIS LARGE RANGE IS
DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTIES. THERE WILL BE A
LOT LESS WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM, MAYBE LIKE 25 MPH GUST INSTEAD
OF THE 60 MPH WITH THE CURRENT STORM. OTHER THAN THAT, THE 7 DAY
FORECAST LOOKS DRY.
THE OTHER STORY LINE IS THE BELOW AVERAGE COLD TEMPERATURES
FILTERING IN THIS WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 20S, WITH THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 30S. THE AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE ARE LOOKING AT
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE AVERAGE FOR LOWS RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE
TEENS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR JUST HOW COLD. NBM TEMPERATURE
RANGES AROUND A 20 DEGREE SPREAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE WEST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO BLSN AND 45KT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS THEN
SHOULD GO VFR AND SCT030 OR SKC IN THE SOUTHWEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ001-009-010-017>020-031>037.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-
011>013-021>023-025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040>048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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