060
FXUS63 KBIS 210547
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1147 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 20S AND 30S, AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
ABOVE ZERO. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO START NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER.
- A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS WEEKEND IN
THE NORTH, WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
NUDGES INTO WESTERN ND. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, THUS BOOSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER
MATCH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
PREVIOUSLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED BY
THE TIME OF THIS MID EVENING UPDATE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
OBSERVING WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH AND GUSTS LESS
THAN 30 MPH. A FEW STRONGER HOLDOUTS, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, BUT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW STRATUS LINGERS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY EAST OF
OF HIGHWAY 83, BUT CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIP INTO THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST, THOUGH STILL REMAIN UP TO
THE LOWER 20S IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAVE
GENERALLY BEGUN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT SNOW HAVING
ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO DIMINISH. AS SUCH, WE HAVE LET ALL PRODUCTS EXPIRE ON
TIME AT 6PM CST /5PM MST. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY, AND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO, BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
CURRENTLY THE SURFACE LOW HAS RETROGRADED BACK WEST AND IT
SITTING ON THE MINNESOTA CANADIAN BORDER. ALOFT THE LOW IS
CLOSER TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SNOW IS CURRENTLY WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. LATE THIS MORNING WE HAD REPORTS OF 5
TO 7 INCHES BETWEEN MINOT AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. NO REPORTS FROM THE MOUNTAINS YET. THEY COULD GET
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE WE ARE ALL DONE. HIGHER PRESSURE
HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST WITH AN INCOMING RIDGE.
THIS HAS ERODED THE CLOUDS AND IS DIMINISHING THE WINDS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD EAST. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER A LARGE FLAT RIDGE THAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRODUCING SNOW IN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS OF NOW, THE PATH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ACT LIKE A
CLIPPER, DIPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MEASURABLE SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200, WITH THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL RIGHT ON THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LOOKS LIKE
THE INTERSTATE WILL BE THE SNOW CUTOFF. AREAS LIKE BISMARCK OVER
TO GRASSY BUTTE ONLY HAVE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF
SNOW. ON THE CANADIAN BORDER THE PROBABILITIES OF 4 INCHES ARE
70 PERCENT, AND 50 PERCENT FOR 6 INCHES. THERE IS A LARGE RANGE
OF SNOWFALL. THE 25TH TO 75TH IS ROUGHLY 3 INCHES TO 10 INCHES
ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THIS LARGE RANGE IS
DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTIES. THERE WILL BE A LOT
LESS WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM, MAYBE LIKE 25 MPH GUST INSTEAD OF
THE 60 MPH WITH THE CURRENT STORM. OTHER THAN THAT, THE 7 DAY
FORECAST LOOKS DRY.
THE OTHER STORY LINE IS THE BELOW AVERAGE COLD TEMPERATURES
FILTERING IN THIS WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 20S, WITH THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 30S. THE AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE ARE LOOKING AT
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE AVERAGE FOR LOWS RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE
TEENS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR JUST HOW COLD. NBM TEMPERATURE
RANGES AROUND A 20 DEGREE SPREAD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
MVFR STRATUS REMAINS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND ALL OF EASTERN
ND. STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...TELKEN
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