388
FXUS63 KBIS 170543
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1143 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS COLD AS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST IN NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED FOR NEXT WEEK AROUND THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
MINIMAL UPDATES NEED THIS TIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
LITTLE NEEDING UPDATING LATE THIS EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL START DIMINISHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER APPEARS IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AND
LIKELY TOMORROW. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS AS A
RESULT. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASED RH TONIGHT COULD PROVIDE FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG, ALTHOUGH THE MENTIONED CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE
FOG COVERAGE THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME NORTHERN SITES ARE REPORTING SNOW,
ALTHOUGH THESE SITES ALSO CONTAIN BREEZY WINDS. THERE COULD BE A
MIX OF BLOWING SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES OCCURRING. THUS HAVE ADDED
BOTH ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION WAS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WEAK
IMPULSES MOVED THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW, WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE AREAS OF MORE CONSISTENT
SNOW. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE EXITING
SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF FALLING LIGHT SNOW.
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS EXPECTED,
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, ALTHOUGH TOO LOW OF
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES.
SNOW CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS, WITH THE BULK OF ENERGY AND FORECAST SNOWFALL
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. WE ARE CARRYING A BROAD 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING AN INCH.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS OF THE WEEK COMES FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MIDWEEK. AS THE
TROUGH BASE APPROACHING, GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND MODERATE TO STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS LOOKS TO
OVERLAP RELATIVELY WELL WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS AND MODESTLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES, WHICH DOES GIVE CONCERN FOR BANDED SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY A HYBRID STYLE OF SYSTEM
WITH BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING, SO WE WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A LARGE SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH
EMBEDDED BANDS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS. PLOWABLE SNOW IS FAVORED GENERALLY
FROM WILLISTON, TO BISMARCK, TO JAMESTOWN, AND NORTH. PROBABILITIES
OF AT LEAST 3 INCHES RANGE FROM 30 PERCENT WEST AND SOUTH, TO AROUND
80 PERCENT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, AND WHEN WE INCREASE THE THRESHOLD
TO AT LEAST 6 INCHES, THOSE GO FROM 10 PERCENT (WILLISTON-BISMARCK-
JAMESTOWN) TO AROUND 50 PERCENT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, ESPECIALLY THE
BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY AREA. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, PRESSURE RISES AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION FAVOR STRONG WINDS ON THURSDAY, WITH THE
ECMWF EFI HIGHLIGHTING MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FOR STRONG WINDS. WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK THIS COULD LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ISN'T THE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS, WITH THAT COMING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS WORTH WATCHING.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BECOME A CONCERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING 20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. LOOKING BROADLY
AT NBM TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT TEN DAYS OR SO,
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT LATE THIS WEEK, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC NBM
PRODUCING LOWS BELOW ZERO FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHERE FORECAST LOWS ARE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY (20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE), BEFORE WE SLOWLY START TO WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AROUND THE CHRISTMAS DAY HOLIDAY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BROAD RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY NEXT
WEEK, LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STRONGLY FAVORED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A BROAD SHIELD OF CLOUDS LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS MOST TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL MAINLY STAY
WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE, ALTHOUGH COULD LIFT BRIEFLY TO LOW VFR
HEIGHT, OR LOWER TO IFR HEIGHTS. PLACED IN BKN LAYERS TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL AT MOST SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW RETURN TOMORROW,
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND HAS NOT BEEN PLACED IN ANY TAF
SITES YET.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...SMITH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page