950
FXUS63 KBIS 182059
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
259 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS FORMS OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. VARIOUS WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- HEAVIEST SNOW OF AROUND 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL REMAIN MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 52, WITH AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO BEULAH TO
ELLENDALE. LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 60 MPH IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
- BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, WITH NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES CLIPPER SYSTEM LOW SITUATED
OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA, WITH HIGH
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES NOTABLE SHORT WAVE WITH THE CLIPPER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH SECONDARY WAVE NOTED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVER OUR AREA, SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER, WITH LIGHT SNOW NUDGING INTO
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR TONIGHT, SYSTEM CONTINUES IT EAST-SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION WITH
THE LOW PUSHING INTO EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN EARNEST
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 52 WHERE GREATEST LIFT IS NOTED AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL. FURTHER SOUTH, WARMER AIR NUDGES IN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, WHICH BRINGS THE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING RAIN, NOTABLY OVER SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, ALBEIT A LITTLE COULD NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH.
WITH THAT ALL SAID, ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE LIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS EXPECTED AT MOST. STILL,
THAT IS ENOUGH TO CAUSE A NOTABLE IMPACT TO TRAVEL IF THIS DOES
DEVELOP.
LOW CONTINUES ITS EAST/SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY WITH COLD AIR
RAPIDLY WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED, WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT, PARTICULARLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, AND ELEVATED LAPSE RATES.
THEREFORE, THE STAGE IS SET FOR STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP,
STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED, WITH MUCH OF IT COINCIDING WHERE FREEZING RAIN WAS A
CONCERN. TO THE NORTH AND EAST, WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN
PLACE, WITH QUITE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. HAVE NOTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW, WITH
GREATEST CONCERNS AGAIN AROUND THE HIGHWAY 52, PARTS OF THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR WHERE THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW MELDS UP
WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY, LOW PASSES FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS MINNESOTA/IOWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF DURING ITS
DEPARTURE. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY TAPER LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH QUITE COLD LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BRINGING LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA. EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP, IT
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIGHT.
A SLOW BUT CONSISTENT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL LOW SNOW CHANCES ENTER
THE FORECAST EVERY SO OFTEN, BUT IMPACTS FROM THIS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA, RESULTING IN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AT THE KDIK
TERMINAL.
A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO AVIATION. SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR
VISIBILITY WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING, ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION,
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGEST IN THE WEST
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. LATER TONIGHT, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE STATE AND TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST AND
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50-55 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
011>013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ010-021-
022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY
FOR NDZ017>020-034.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR NDZ023-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-041-042-045.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 3
PM CST /2 PM MST/ THURSDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR NDZ035>037-046>048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...SCHILD
AVIATION...HOLLAN/JJS
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