499
FXUS63 KBIS 190011
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
611 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS FORMS OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THURSDAY. VARIOUS WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.
- HEAVIEST SNOW OF AROUND 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL REMAIN MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 52, WITH AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO BEULAH TO
ELLENDALE. LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 60 MPH IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
- BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, WITH NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PRESENTLY, THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY OF AROUND ONE
HALF TO 1 MILE IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. AS A ROUGH
ESTIMATE, THIS TRANSLATES TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OF
SNOW PER HOUR. SNOW IS EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS
WELL. IN THE SOUTHWEST, THERE REMAINS A DRY LAYER OFF THE
SURFACE, SO TO THIS POINT, PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY NOT BEEN
OBSERVED. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD SATURATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. ALL IN ALL, THE OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO HEADLINE
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES CLIPPER SYSTEM LOW SITUATED
OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA, WITH HIGH
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES NOTABLE SHORT WAVE WITH THE CLIPPER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH SECONDARY WAVE NOTED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVER OUR AREA, SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER, WITH LIGHT SNOW NUDGING INTO
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR TONIGHT, SYSTEM CONTINUES IT EAST-SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION WITH
THE LOW PUSHING INTO EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN EARNEST
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 52 WHERE GREATEST LIFT IS NOTED AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL. FURTHER SOUTH, WARMER AIR NUDGES IN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, WHICH BRINGS THE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING RAIN, NOTABLY OVER SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, ALBEIT A LITTLE COULD NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH.
WITH THAT ALL SAID, ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE LIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS EXPECTED AT MOST. STILL,
THAT IS ENOUGH TO CAUSE A NOTABLE IMPACT TO TRAVEL IF THIS DOES
DEVELOP.
LOW CONTINUES ITS EAST/SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY WITH COLD AIR
RAPIDLY WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED, WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT, PARTICULARLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, AND ELEVATED LAPSE RATES.
THEREFORE, THE STAGE IS SET FOR STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP,
STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED, WITH MUCH OF IT COINCIDING WHERE FREEZING RAIN WAS A
CONCERN. TO THE NORTH AND EAST, WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN
PLACE, WITH QUITE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. HAVE NOTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW, WITH
GREATEST CONCERNS AGAIN AROUND THE HIGHWAY 52, PARTS OF THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR WHERE THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW MELDS UP
WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY, LOW PASSES FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS MINNESOTA/IOWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF DURING ITS
DEPARTURE. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY TAPER LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH QUITE COLD LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BRINGING LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA. EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP, IT
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIGHT.
A SLOW BUT CONSISTENT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL LOW SNOW CHANCES ENTER
THE FORECAST EVERY SO OFTEN, BUT IMPACTS FROM THIS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER CONTINUES IMPACTING THE REGION CREATING
MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO AVIATION. PRESENTLY, SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL, WHILE EXPANDING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. MEANWHILE, CEILINGS ARE
GENERALLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR AS WELL. IN THE SOUTHWEST, A
FEW HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. VERY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 KTS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. MOST NEW SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z, HOWEVER,
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
011>013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY
FOR NDZ009-017>020-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ010-021-
022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ023-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-041-042-045.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 3
PM CST /2 PM MST/ THURSDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ035>037-
046>048-050-051.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...SCHILD
AVIATION...TELKEN
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