787
FXUS63 KBIS 190649
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1249 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS FORMS OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THURSDAY. VARIOUS WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.
- HEAVIEST TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 5 TO 8 INCHES
WILL REMAIN MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 52, WITH AMOUNTS
OF AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
WILLISTON TO BEULAH TO ELLENDALE. LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 60 MPH IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
- BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, WITH NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
OVERALL, IT APPEARS THE FORECAST IS TRENDING WELL. STARTING TO SEE
MORE EVIDENCE THAT FREEZING RAIN HAS CAUSED GREATER IMPACTS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR FROM THE MONTANA STATE LINE TO NEAR
BISMARCK. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT WITH PROBABILITIES DECREASING
OVER TIME. SOME THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO END THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHERE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING, BUT IT
APPEARS THAT GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT WARMED AS MUCH.
WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH ARE BECOMING MORE COMMON IN EASTERN
MONTANA AND SHOULD BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 1 AM MST.
ALL ONGOING HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
SNOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW IS PRESENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER, AND AS SUCH, IS PASSING THROUGH THE
BISMARCK/MANDAN AREA. THIS IS A PROGRESSIVE BAND, HOWEVER, SO
RESIDENCY TIME OF THIS PARTICULAR ENHANCED BAND IN ANY ONE AREA
ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTHWEST, MORE SCATTERED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT. THERE HAVE BEEN OBSERVATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH THESE SHOWERY RETURNS. HOWEVER, FREEZING RAIN
SEEMS SHORT-LIVED BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW. THAT SAID,
BAKER, MT IS PRESENTLY REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 43 DEGREES.
AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT WILL MIX
DOWN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING. THIS COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ON SURFACES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PRESENTLY, THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY OF AROUND ONE
HALF TO 1 MILE IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. AS A ROUGH
ESTIMATE, THIS TRANSLATES TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OF
SNOW PER HOUR. SNOW IS EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS
WELL. IN THE SOUTHWEST, THERE REMAINS A DRY LAYER OFF THE
SURFACE, SO TO THIS POINT, PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY NOT BEEN
OBSERVED. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD SATURATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. ALL IN ALL, THE OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO HEADLINE
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES CLIPPER SYSTEM LOW SITUATED
OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA, WITH HIGH
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES NOTABLE SHORT WAVE WITH THE CLIPPER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH SECONDARY WAVE NOTED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVER OUR AREA, SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER, WITH LIGHT SNOW NUDGING INTO
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR TONIGHT, SYSTEM CONTINUES IT EAST-SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION WITH
THE LOW PUSHING INTO EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN EARNEST
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 52 WHERE GREATEST LIFT IS NOTED AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL. FURTHER SOUTH, WARMER AIR NUDGES IN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, WHICH BRINGS THE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING RAIN, NOTABLY OVER SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, ALBEIT A LITTLE COULD NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH.
WITH THAT ALL SAID, ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE LIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS EXPECTED AT MOST. STILL,
THAT IS ENOUGH TO CAUSE A NOTABLE IMPACT TO TRAVEL IF THIS DOES
DEVELOP.
LOW CONTINUES ITS EAST/SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY WITH COLD AIR
RAPIDLY WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED, WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT, PARTICULARLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, AND ELEVATED LAPSE RATES.
THEREFORE, THE STAGE IS SET FOR STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP,
STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED, WITH MUCH OF IT COINCIDING WHERE FREEZING RAIN WAS A
CONCERN. TO THE NORTH AND EAST, WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN
PLACE, WITH QUITE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. HAVE NOTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW, WITH
GREATEST CONCERNS AGAIN AROUND THE HIGHWAY 52, PARTS OF THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR WHERE THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW MELDS UP
WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY, LOW PASSES FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS MINNESOTA/IOWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF DURING ITS
DEPARTURE. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY TAPER LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH QUITE COLD LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BRINGING LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA. EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP, IT
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIGHT.
A SLOW BUT CONSISTENT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL LOW SNOW CHANCES ENTER
THE FORECAST EVERY SO OFTEN, BUT IMPACTS FROM THIS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AVIATION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW WITH IFR TO AT TIMES LIFR VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING, AND IS ALSO LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FALLING SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND MIDDAY, BUT AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW COULD CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW,
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN UNDER THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS WILL
PREDOMINANTLY BE AT MVFR LEVELS, WITH IFR AT TIMES, THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 25-35 KTS AND GUSTS TO 45-50 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL SURFACE WINDS
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ001>005-011>013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ009-017>020-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ010-021-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-
025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR NDZ031>033-041-042-045.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ035>037-046>048-050-051.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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