844
FXUS63 KBIS 192041
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
241 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS EXIT OUT OF THE AREA WITH
CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (~30-60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.
- LOW CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, OR SNOW
SUNDAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THE START OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
CHRISTMAS DAY HOLIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER, WHILE HIGH SETTLES
THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS.
OVER OUR AREA, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING, SNOW ENDING, AND
WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. ONLY REMAINING WINTER HEADLINES
ARE MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, BUT THESE SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, ONLY REMAINING CONCERN IS SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW THAT IS SHOWING UP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. HAVE ADDRESSED WITH SOME LOW
SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
RIGHT THROUGH THE STATE, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP WELL
BELOW ZERO OVER SOME LOCATIONS. THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD WILL IT
GET AS IF CLOUDS OVER SASKATCHEWAN SHIFT OVER OUR AREA, THAT
SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. IF WE DO REMAIN CLEAR, MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, SO WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST.
ON FRIDAY, A POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORT WAVE SIDES OVER THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND PUSHES DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW (ABOUT 30 TO 60 PERCENT) MAINLY TO
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE LIGHT, AS NBM CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR MORE ONLY MAX OUT AT
AROUND 30 PERCENT BETWEEN MINOT AND WASHBURN, LESSER ELSEWHERE.
CHANCES PUSH EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. NEXT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION COME SUNDAY, ALBEIT LOW (~20 PERCENT). WITH
WARMER AIR PUSHING IN, THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WITH A LITTLE
SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EAST, A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM MONDAY ONWARD THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST,
THOUGH BLOWING SNOW REMAINS A FACTOR OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, BRINGING AREAS OF IFR
VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIND DIMINISHING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-
025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ036-
037-047-048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...
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