141
FXUS63 KBIS 192341
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
541 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM CHANCES (~30-60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- LOW CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, OR SNOW
SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THE START OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
CHRISTMAS DAY HOLIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
WILL LET ALL HAZARDS EXPIRE AT 6 PM. PROBABLY STILL A FEW AREAS
OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW OUT THERE, BUT SNOW HAS ENDED AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXCEPT FOR
SOME CLOUDS IN THE JRV AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH,
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE WERE STILL A FEW CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE
SAKAKAWEA, SO MAY EXTEND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT TEMPERATURES WITH THE
LATE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER, WHILE HIGH SETTLES
THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS.
OVER OUR AREA, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING, SNOW ENDING, AND
WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. ONLY REMAINING WINTER HEADLINES
ARE MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, BUT THESE SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, ONLY REMAINING CONCERN IS SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW THAT IS SHOWING UP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. HAVE ADDRESSED WITH SOME LOW
SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
RIGHT THROUGH THE STATE, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP WELL
BELOW ZERO OVER SOME LOCATIONS. THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD WILL IT
GET AS IF CLOUDS OVER SASKATCHEWAN SHIFT OVER OUR AREA, THAT
SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. IF WE DO REMAIN CLEAR, MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, SO WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST.
ON FRIDAY, A POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORT WAVE SIDES OVER THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND PUSHES DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW (ABOUT 30 TO 60 PERCENT) MAINLY TO
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE LIGHT, AS NBM CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR MORE ONLY MAX OUT AT
AROUND 30 PERCENT BETWEEN MINOT AND WASHBURN, LESSER ELSEWHERE.
CHANCES PUSH EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. NEXT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION COME SUNDAY, ALBEIT LOW (~20 PERCENT). WITH
WARMER AIR PUSHING IN, THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WITH A LITTLE
SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EAST, A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM MONDAY ONWARD THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES REMAIN AT KJMS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD, BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS HERE TO
IMPROVE SHORTLY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MOST PART THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTIONS BEING
POSSIBLY DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA, WITH LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/FLURRIES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT, WHICH COULD IMPACT KMOT. AT THIS TIME THESE
ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION IN EITHER TAF. ON FRIDAY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING AN AREA OF SNOW WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND, BEGINNING LATE MORNING AT
KXWA AND AT KMOT AND KBIS IN THE AFTERNOON. SYSTEM MAY STAY
NORTH OF KDIK AND MAY NOT REACH KJMS UNTIL AFTER THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-
025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ036-
037-047-048-050-051.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH
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