031
FXUS63 KBIS 200352
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
952 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (~30-60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- LOW CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, OR SNOW ON
SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THE START OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
CHRISTMAS DAY HOLIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS DROPPING SOUTH QUICKLY FROM
CANADA. OBSERVATIONS AND LIGHT RETURNS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
INDICATE THERE ARE SOME FLURRIES FALLING. ADDED SOME ISOLATED
FLURRIES AS THIS BAND TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS BAND OF
CLOUDS, OR FLURRIES SO KIND OF A BROAD BRUSH FOR FLURRIES AND
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT. THE BAND IS MOVING QUICKLY THOUGH, AND THIS
LEADS TO THE NEXT ISSUE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY
THE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FORECAST VALUES. ONCE
THE MID CLOUDS MOVE OUT, IT LOOKS LIKE SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS
SPREADING IN, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S NOT TOO THICK, SO
TEMPERATURES COULD STILL BOTTOM OUT. HESITANT TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES. POPULATED THE
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH IS JUST A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BRING POPS INTO THE AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
WILL LET ALL HAZARDS EXPIRE AT 6 PM. PROBABLY STILL A FEW AREAS
OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW OUT THERE, BUT SNOW HAS ENDED AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXCEPT FOR
SOME CLOUDS IN THE JRV AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH,
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE WERE STILL A FEW CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE
SAKAKAWEA, SO MAY EXTEND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT TEMPERATURES WITH THE
LATE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER, WHILE HIGH SETTLES
THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS.
OVER OUR AREA, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING, SNOW ENDING, AND
WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. ONLY REMAINING WINTER HEADLINES
ARE MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, BUT THESE SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, ONLY REMAINING CONCERN IS SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW THAT IS SHOWING UP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. HAVE ADDRESSED WITH SOME LOW
SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
RIGHT THROUGH THE STATE, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP WELL
BELOW ZERO OVER SOME LOCATIONS. THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD WILL IT
GET AS IF CLOUDS OVER SASKATCHEWAN SHIFT OVER OUR AREA, THAT
SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. IF WE DO REMAIN CLEAR, MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, SO WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST.
ON FRIDAY, A POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORT WAVE SIDES OVER THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND PUSHES DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW (ABOUT 30 TO 60 PERCENT) MAINLY TO
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE LIGHT, AS NBM CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR MORE ONLY MAX OUT AT
AROUND 30 PERCENT BETWEEN MINOT AND WASHBURN, LESSER ELSEWHERE.
CHANCES PUSH EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. NEXT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION COME SUNDAY, ALBEIT LOW (~20 PERCENT). WITH
WARMER AIR PUSHING IN, THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WITH A LITTLE
SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EAST, A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM MONDAY ONWARD THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A BAND OF VFR
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ND WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME ISOLATED
FLURRIES. CURRENTLY, THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IS
LOW. WILL TAKE A LOOK JUST BEFORE ISSUANCE TO SEE IF WE NEED TO
ADD A MENTION AT KMOT, KBIS OR KJMS. ON FRIDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BRING AN AREA OF SNOW WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND, BEGINNING LATE MORNING AT
KXWA AND AT KMOT AND KBIS IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF KDIK AND IT LOOKS TO WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES KJMS AROUND 00Z BUT KJMS WOULD STILL SEE MVFR
CEILINGS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT WINDS IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS CENTRAL WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH
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