140  
FXUS63 KBIS 200606  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
1206 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- COLD TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW  
ZERO.  
 
- MEDIUM CHANCES (~30-60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY  
OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  
 
- LOW CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, OR SNOW ON  
SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  
 
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THE START OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE  
CHRISTMAS DAY HOLIDAY.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
 
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY  
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS, AND WHAT IS LEFT CONTINUES TO  
RACE SOUTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING SOUTH OFF OF  
LAKE SAKAKAWEA, REACHING ALL THE WAY TO GLEN ULLIN. WILL HAVE TO  
MONITOR TO SEE IF THESE LOW CLOUDS EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO FOG.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024  
 
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS DROPPING SOUTH QUICKLY FROM  
CANADA. OBSERVATIONS AND LIGHT RETURNS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL  
INDICATE THERE ARE SOME FLURRIES FALLING. ADDED SOME ISOLATED  
FLURRIES AS THIS BAND TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST  
AREA. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS BAND OF  
CLOUDS, OR FLURRIES SO KIND OF A BROAD BRUSH FOR FLURRIES AND  
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT. THE BAND IS MOVING QUICKLY THOUGH, AND THIS  
LEADS TO THE NEXT ISSUE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY  
THE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FORECAST VALUES. ONCE  
THE MID CLOUDS MOVE OUT, IT LOOKS LIKE SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS  
SPREADING IN, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S NOT TOO THICK, SO  
TEMPERATURES COULD STILL BOTTOM OUT. HESITANT TO MAKE ANY  
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES. POPULATED THE  
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH IS JUST A BIT  
QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BRING POPS INTO THE AREA.  
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024  
 
WILL LET ALL HAZARDS EXPIRE AT 6 PM. PROBABLY STILL A FEW AREAS  
OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW OUT THERE, BUT SNOW HAS ENDED AND WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXCEPT FOR  
SOME CLOUDS IN THE JRV AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH,  
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS A  
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS EVENING.  
THERE WERE STILL A FEW CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE  
SAKAKAWEA, SO MAY EXTEND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO  
THE EARLY EVENING. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT TEMPERATURES WITH THE  
LATE EVENING UPDATE.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024  
 
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW WITH THE CLIPPER  
SYSTEM ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER, WHILE HIGH SETTLES  
THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH  
DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE UPPER  
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN  
CONUS.  
 
OVER OUR AREA, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING, SNOW ENDING, AND  
WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. ONLY REMAINING WINTER HEADLINES  
ARE MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF FAR SOUTH  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, BUT THESE SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN THE CURRENT  
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, ONLY REMAINING CONCERN IS SOME LAKE EFFECT  
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW THAT IS SHOWING UP TO THE  
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. HAVE ADDRESSED WITH SOME LOW  
SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH SETTLES  
RIGHT THROUGH THE STATE, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP WELL  
BELOW ZERO OVER SOME LOCATIONS. THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD WILL IT  
GET AS IF CLOUDS OVER SASKATCHEWAN SHIFT OVER OUR AREA, THAT  
SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. IF WE DO REMAIN CLEAR, MODELS  
ARE HINTING THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST AND  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, SO WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY  
FOG IN THE FORECAST.  
 
ON FRIDAY, A POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORT WAVE SIDES OVER THE UPPER  
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND PUSHES DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL  
BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW (ABOUT 30 TO 60 PERCENT) MAINLY TO  
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO  
BE LIGHT, AS NBM CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR MORE ONLY MAX OUT AT  
AROUND 30 PERCENT BETWEEN MINOT AND WASHBURN, LESSER ELSEWHERE.  
CHANCES PUSH EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. NEXT CHANCES  
FOR PRECIPITATION COME SUNDAY, ALBEIT LOW (~20 PERCENT). WITH  
WARMER AIR PUSHING IN, THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WITH A LITTLE  
SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EAST, A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE  
SOUTHWEST, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN.  
 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM MONDAY ONWARD THROUGH  
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,  
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT  
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW WITH  
LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO  
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND INTO SOUTHEAST  
NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST  
PROBABILITIES FOR CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS ARE FROM KMOT TO KJMS,  
WITH AREAS FROM AROUND KXWA TO KBIS HAVING LOWER PROBABILITIES.  
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS ON FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...HOLLAN  
DISCUSSION...JJS  
AVIATION...HOLLAN  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab ND Page
Main Text Page