507
FXUS63 KBIS 202046
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
246 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL,
BUT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR UP TO 2 INCHES.
- THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED STATEWIDE FROM
CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BRINGING FORTH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AS IT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND OUT WEST. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT BROUGHT BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET NUDGED EASTWARD AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL HALF OF
THE STATE. THE EASTERN HALF WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN, BUT THE PROBABILITIES REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP ABOVE
FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN PROBABILITIES OF 0.01 OF AN INCH OR MORE
ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE IF
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
MORE MESOSCALE IN NATURE RESULTING IN AREA OF BANDED
PRECIPITATION. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM IS STILL TO FAR OUT
FOR THE CAMS TO RESOLVE.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WHERE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. BROAD RIDGING WILL CREEP INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST
BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THE WHOLE AREA COULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY CHRISTMAS DAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS A
BAND OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH TEMPORARY
IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS FROM SNOW. THIS BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE FOR
SITES IF VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS DROP. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. NEAR MVFR CIGS
COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF
THE REGION.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page