496
FXUS63 KBIS 202357 CCA
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED KEY MESSAGES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
- THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED STATEWIDE FROM
CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL ND. ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS
ALL BUT PASSED MINOT AND BISMARCK AT THIS TIME. WE HAD A RECENT
REPORT OF 2 INCHES AT MINOT. AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WE HAD A REPORT OF 2 INCHES IN STANLEY. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND MELT THE SNOW AT THE OFFICE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL END
UP WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW HERE. IT DIDN'T LAST LONG BUT THE
18Z NAM SHOWED AN AREA OF MODERATE QVEC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA, CONGRUENT WITH
STRONG QG FORCING AT 700MB RIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND. BISMARCK
WAS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD, NEAREST TO THE
MODERATE TO STRONG LAPSE RATES. WE HAD AROUND 30 MINUTES OF
MODERATE SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM
22-22 UTC, WHICH PROBABLY RESULTED IN A LITTLE OVER A HALF INCH
OF SNOW.
THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST SO DO NOT
EXPECT BANDED PRECIP HERE, BUT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER, SO SOME ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH WOULD
NOT BE UNREASONABLE.
QUIET TONIGHT BEHIND THIS EXITING WAVE AND NOT AS COLD, WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AROUND
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS, TO THE TEENS FAR SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BRINGING FORTH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AS IT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND OUT WEST. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT BROUGHT BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET NUDGED EASTWARD AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL HALF OF
THE STATE. THE EASTERN HALF WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN, BUT THE PROBABILITIES REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP ABOVE
FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN PROBABILITIES OF 0.01 OF AN INCH OR MORE
ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE IF
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
MORE MESOSCALE IN NATURE RESULTING IN AREA OF BANDED
PRECIPITATION. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM IS STILL TO FAR OUT
FOR THE CAMS TO RESOLVE.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WHERE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. BROAD RIDGING WILL CREEP INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST
BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THE WHOLE AREA COULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY CHRISTMAS DAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A BAND OF LIGHTS SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL ND. ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED AT KMOT AND
KBIS WITH MAYBE AN HOUR OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRY ACTIVITY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT KJMS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT KXWA AND KDIK.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH
DIMINISHING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. MESOSCALE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON A BAND OF LOW STRATUS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WE CAN'T RULE IT OUT, LATEST GUIDANCE
WANTS TO KEEP IT CONFINED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, MOSTLY
NORTH OF KXWA AND HOVERING AROUND KMOT. FOR NOW WE WENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO KEEPING MVFR CEILINGS MOSTLY CONTAINED TO KMOT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SEE HOW TRENDS
CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...TWH
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