298
FXUS63 KBIS 210350
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED STATEWIDE FROM
CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND WITH CLOUDS ALSO
DIMINISHING. LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
SMALL SIGNALS FOR A BIT OF STRATUS/FOG, MAINLY IN THE NORTH, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF FOG AT THIS
TIME. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL ND. ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS
ALL BUT PASSED MINOT AND BISMARCK AT THIS TIME. WE HAD A RECENT
REPORT OF 2 INCHES AT MINOT. AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WE HAD A REPORT OF 2 INCHES IN STANLEY. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND MELT THE SNOW AT THE OFFICE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL END
UP WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW HERE. IT DIDN'T LAST LONG BUT THE
18Z NAM SHOWED AN AREA OF MODERATE QVEC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA, CONGRUENT WITH
STRONG QG FORCING AT 700MB RIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND. BISMARCK
WAS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD, NEAREST TO THE
MODERATE TO STRONG LAPSE RATES. WE HAD AROUND 30 MINUTES OF
MODERATE SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM
22-22 UTC, WHICH PROBABLY RESULTED IN A LITTLE OVER A HALF INCH
OF SNOW.
THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST SO DO NOT
EXPECT BANDED PRECIP HERE, BUT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER, SO SOME ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH WOULD
NOT BE UNREASONABLE.
QUIET TONIGHT BEHIND THIS EXITING WAVE AND NOT AS COLD, WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AROUND
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS, TO THE TEENS FAR SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BRINGING FORTH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AS IT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND OUT WEST. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT BROUGHT BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET NUDGED EASTWARD AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL HALF OF
THE STATE. THE EASTERN HALF WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN, BUT THE PROBABILITIES REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP ABOVE
FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN PROBABILITIES OF 0.01 OF AN INCH OR MORE
ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE IF
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
MORE MESOSCALE IN NATURE RESULTING IN AREA OF BANDED
PRECIPITATION. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM IS STILL TO FAR OUT
FOR THE CAMS TO RESOLVE.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WHERE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. BROAD RIDGING WILL CREEP INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST
BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THE WHOLE AREA COULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY CHRISTMAS DAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD
BUT WITH AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES. A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AN AREA OF LOW VFR TO MVFR CLOUDINESS IS CURRENTLY MOVING FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND AND WILL IMPACT KJMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS. GENERALLY
CLEAR OVER SOUTHWEST ND TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AND THINK
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER
BAND OF LOW VFR TO MVFR CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO
NORTHWEST ND IS EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ALONG LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND
COULD IMPACT KXWA, KMOT AND POSSIBLY KBIS OVERNIGHT, WHILE
POTENTIALLY CLEARING FROM KXWA LATE TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KMOT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS. AT THIS
TIME KEPT VFR CEILINGS AT BISMARCK.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...TWH
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