740  
FXUS63 KBIS 211217  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
617 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN  
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. THE  
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE ACROSS THE NORTH.  
 
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED STATEWIDE FROM  
CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 617 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024  
 
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS  
AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE  
NORTHWEST THAT ARE UNDERNEATH LOW STRATUS. WE'RE SEEING  
INTERMITTENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW, PATCHY  
FOG, OR BOTH. STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST,  
ALTHOUGH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE STILL WANTS TO HANG ON TO  
CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE OUR NEXT  
WAVE MOVES IN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AS WELL.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024  
 
THIS MORNING, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS.  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER THE DAKOTAS, WITH THE  
FORECAST AREA PLACED IN BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL  
MINNESOTA, AND A LOW ANALYZED IN SOUTHEAST ALBERTA. LOW CLOUDS  
HAVE BEEN PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH  
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SOME  
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS DECK, ALTHOUGH  
HAVE YET TO SEE ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.  
 
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS  
TO NUDGE INTO THE STATE, LEADING TO SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES  
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE MID  
40S. TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO THE NORTH AND EAST, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER  
VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER WILL  
DIMINISH, BUT THE NORTH CENTRAL HAS THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF  
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS COMES FROM A  
PROGRESSIVE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH ON  
SUNDAY, BRINGING MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY  
MORNING IN THE WEST AND PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE  
DAY, ENDING SUNDAY EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. THERE ARE  
STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES, WITH  
WARM AIR ALOFT ON TOP OF COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY  
NORTH AND EAST, FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. SOME OF THE INITIAL HIGH-  
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION THAT  
WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN WAVE OF FREEZING RAIN, AS THERE IS  
STRONG ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS ON 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.  
THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEFORE  
THE UPPER LOW COMES THROUGH, WRAPPING IN COLDER AIR AND  
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO MOSTLY SNOW BY SUNDAY  
EVENING. THE 00Z HREF HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE  
MISSOURI RIVER, WITH NBM P-TYPE PROBABILITIES STRONGLY FAVORING  
RAIN IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THIS IS THE AREA  
LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY FREEZING RAIN, ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT.  
 
ONE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW  
A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER, SO ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL WARM  
NOSE THAT WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE,  
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE  
SURFACE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. SOME SOUNDINGS ALSO ADVERTISE THE  
COLUMN COOLING ENOUGH AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO TO FAVOR SNOW  
COMPARED TO FREEZING RAIN, SO THE WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION  
COULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED FOR SOME LOCATIONS. ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS GENERALLY FAVOR THE "HEAVIEST" QPF (LOW CHANCE OF  
EXCEEDING 0.10 INCH OF LIQUID) FROM WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON, BUT  
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT ONE CLUSTER, ALONG WITH SOME RECENT  
CAMS RUNS, DO HAVE THIS FURTHER NORTH. WE ARE ADVERTISING A 30  
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL,  
ALTHOUGH CURRENT WEATHER GRIDS ARE PRIMARILY A MIX OF FREEZING  
RAIN AND SNOW. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE HREF IS HIGHLIGHTING  
A LOW CHANCE FOR BANDED SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,  
ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW IS ONLY  
AROUND 10 PERCENT.  
 
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK OF CHRISTMAS IS ABOVE AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES LIKELY, WITH RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD IN NBM  
TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES SIGNALING GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS. BROAD RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL  
SHIFT EAST MIDWEEK, WITH MORE ZONAL TO MAYBE EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST DETERMINISTIC NBM HAS HIGHS ON  
CHRISTMAS EVE FROM AROUND FREEZING NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S  
SOUTHWEST, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS OF THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER  
40S ON CHRISTMAS DAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW  
THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN SWITCH NEXT  
WEEKEND INTO THE WEEK OF NEW YEARS, WITH NBM TEMPERATURES  
BEGINNING TO COOL AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 617 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024  
 
LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH  
DAKOTA, IMPACTING KMOT AND KJMS, AND JUST EAST OF KBIS. SOME  
PATCHY FOG AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT KMOT FOR  
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE QUIET THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF  
PERIOD, WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING OUT AND VFR CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED BY 00Z AT ALL TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS  
MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD,  
IMPACTING KXWA/KMOT.  
 
 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...JONES  
DISCUSSION...JONES  
AVIATION...JONES  
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