104  
FXUS63 KBIS 222348  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
548 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR  
LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.  
 
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY  
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  
 
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024  
 
IN COORDINATION WITH GRAND FORKS, WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE DICKEY, LAMOURE, STUTSMAN AND LOGAN  
COUNTIES. FREEZING RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY  
WITH REPORTS OF ICY ROADS FROM KIDDER INTO WESTERN STUTSMAN  
COUNTY. WE ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY OVER NORTHWEST ND. HAVE  
SEEN RECENT REPORT OF FZRA OR UP OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF  
THE STATE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH  
CENTRAL ND AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS  
BOUNDARY. THERE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RETURNS  
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS PAS HOUR OR SO. WE DID CANCEL THE  
ADVISORY OVER BILLINGS AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES, WHICH IS WELL  
WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WELL ABOVE  
FREEZING.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024  
 
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH  
THIS EVENING. WITH THAT WILL COME CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING  
RAIN. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN LIMITED AT THIS POINT, THUS  
CONTINUED WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AS THE DOMINATE  
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS  
FOR FURTHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE IN CENTRAL ND WHERE  
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED A TIER  
OF COUNTIES EASTWARD. THERE COULD ALSO BE IMPACTS ACROSS THE  
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN ND THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE  
IS NOT AS HIGH IN THESE AREAS GIVEN THERE STILL COULD BE  
(ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY) A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. FRAM MAX QPF WOULD  
HINT IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH FRAM MEAN  
QPF VALUES SHOW MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE. LEFT THESE AREAS AS  
PLACES TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH  
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. AS THE  
CLIPPER MOVES EAST SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. SURFACE  
HIGH STARTS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN ND TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS  
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER LOW. THIS  
COULD PROVIDE THE RETURN OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. OF  
OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS TRAPPED MOISTURE WILL BE AT LEAST A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG A STALLED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE MOISTURE LAYER IS  
DEEP ENOUGH THROUGH MONDAY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE, THE INHIBITING  
FACTOR WILL BE ANY SINKING MOTION FROM THE MENTIONED HIGH  
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR NOW MAINTAINED AND EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE  
MENTION OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST TO  
NEAR 20 DEGREES SOUTHWEST. THE REST OF MONDAY WILL BE MILD FOR  
AREAS IN THE WEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S, WHILE  
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S  
TO CLOUDY AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OUT  
OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT A STEADY SOUTH WIND WILL BE FOUND.  
THIS COULD HELP LIMIT FOG AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH PARTLY  
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY, A WEAK SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THERE  
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS COULD BRING SOME BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS  
THE STATE, ALTHOUGH NBM POPS ARE CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO  
INCLUDE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. THIS TROUGH AT THE VERY  
LEAST WILL BRING CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON  
TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 30S, WITH MID 40S SOUTHWEST.  
 
CHRISTMAS EVE STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. CLOUDY SKIES MAY BE FOUND KEEPING  
TEMPERATURES MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THERE  
COULD BE SOME FOG RETURNING AT NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE DRY SOUTHERLY  
FLOW ALOFT MAY MAKE FOG FORMATION DIFFICULT. CHRISTMAS DAY IS  
STILL LOOKING TO BE FAIRLY MILD AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY  
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING TROUGH COULD PUSH  
THROUGH ON CHRISTMAS DAY. PERHAPS MORE MIX PRECIPITATION COULD  
ALSO RETURN ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT  
THIS TIME AS THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE SPLIT IN NATURE, AND THE  
BETTER MOISTURE STAYS TO OUR SOUTH. MILD YET MAINLY DRY  
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE  
REGION AS ONCE AGAIN THE SPLIT WAVE FAVORS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER  
TO OUR SOUTH. FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND STILL WARRANTS  
MONITORING AS THIS MENTIONED WAVE TO OUR SOUTH ATTEMPTS TO LIFT  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY  
NEED TO BE MONITORED. NBM HAS PLACED SOME SLIGHT POPS IN OUR  
EAST FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TODAY. CURRENTLY ONLY  
ABOUT 20 TO 30% OF CLUSTERS SHOWING FURTHER WESTWARD EXPANSION  
TO THESE WINTRY MIX CHANCES, WITH THE MAJORITY OF CLUSTERS  
KEEPING THIS WAVE TO OUR EAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR GOING  
FORWARD AS CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE THIS A MIXED  
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHERE THE WAVE ENDS UP TRACKING OVER.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024  
 
AREAS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF  
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND AND MAY IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THIS  
EVENING EXCEPT FOR KDIK. LATER THIS EVENING WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR  
AND POSSIBLY LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND, CONTINUING  
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE  
IMPROVING COMPLETELY. CURRENTLY KDIK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT  
OF THE LOW CEILINGS, BUT THEY COULD BE VERY CLOSE. ALL OTHER TAF  
SITES CAN EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY LOW VISIBILITIES AS  
WELL LATER TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING  
FOR NDZ001-002-009>012-017>022-034>037-047-048-051.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...TWH  
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN  
AVIATION...TWH  
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