041
FXUS63 KBIS 230625
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE IN NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAS ENDED. MCLEAN COUNTY AND ALL
OTHER COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6
AM CST. RADAR STILL SHOWS DECENT RETURNS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE
OTHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.
THE NEXT HAZARD TO MONITOR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND A COUPLE AREAS ACROSS RENVILLE AND
BOTTINEAU COUNTIES ARE JUST NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF DETERIORATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
RADAR LOOP SHOWS FREEZING RAIN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A NUMBER OF
OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THAT ARE
REPORTING MIST WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 2-6SM RANGE. THIS COULD
STILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE ADVISORY EXPIRES AT
MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP IT GOING. IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL,
FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. WE HAD A BREAK EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS STARTED AGAIN. BISMARCK
AND MANDAN ARE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS AREA OF FREEZING
RAIN SO WE MIGHT BE IN AND OUT OF IT FOR A COUPLE HOURS, AND
OVERALL THERE IS A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN OUT THERE. NDAWN OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THERE IS AN AREA OF BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.10 LIQUID FROM
SOUTHERN BURLEIGH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KIDDER COUNTY AND INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST STUTSMAN COUNTY. EXPECT THE ADVISORY IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BUT WILL VISIT THAT AFTER 11
PM. UPDATED POPS AGAIN WITH THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 828 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.
YOU CAN SEE THE BACK EDGE OF THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN,
ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHERN ND. IT'S POSSIBLE THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES COULD HAVE BEEN CANCELLED, BUT JUST BARELY. WILL GIVE
THIS A FEW MORE HOURS. WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY A BIT LONGER AS WELL, BUT WE'LL SE HOW
THINGS GO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MAIN OBJECTIVE WITH
THIS UPDATE WAS TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY AND ALSO UPDATE POPS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. UPDATED WSW
HAS BEEN SENT. WILL UPDATE REMAINING PRODUCTS DIRECTLY. THERE
WAS QUITE A LARGE AREA OF WARM AIR ALOFT THIS EVENING. SENT A
SOCIAL MEDIA POST COVERING THIS A BIT. CHECK IT OUT ON FACEBOOK
OR X.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
IN COORDINATION WITH GRAND FORKS, WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE DICKEY, LAMOURE, STUTSMAN AND LOGAN
COUNTIES. FREEZING RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WITH REPORTS OF ICY ROADS FROM KIDDER INTO WESTERN STUTSMAN
COUNTY. WE ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY OVER NORTHWEST ND. HAVE
SEEN RECENT REPORT OF FZRA OR UP OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE STATE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ND AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. THERE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RETURNS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS PAS HOUR OR SO. WE DID CANCEL THE
ADVISORY OVER BILLINGS AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES, WHICH IS WELL
WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WELL ABOVE
FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WITH THAT WILL COME CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN LIMITED AT THIS POINT, THUS
CONTINUED WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AS THE DOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS
FOR FURTHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE IN CENTRAL ND WHERE
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED A TIER
OF COUNTIES EASTWARD. THERE COULD ALSO BE IMPACTS ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN ND THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH IN THESE AREAS GIVEN THERE STILL COULD BE
(ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY) A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. FRAM MAX QPF WOULD
HINT IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH FRAM MEAN
QPF VALUES SHOW MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE. LEFT THESE AREAS AS
PLACES TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES EAST SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH STARTS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN ND TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER LOW. THIS
COULD PROVIDE THE RETURN OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. OF
OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS TRAPPED MOISTURE WILL BE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE MOISTURE LAYER IS
DEEP ENOUGH THROUGH MONDAY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE, THE INHIBITING
FACTOR WILL BE ANY SINKING MOTION FROM THE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR NOW MAINTAINED AND EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR 20 DEGREES SOUTHWEST. THE REST OF MONDAY WILL BE MILD FOR
AREAS IN THE WEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S, WHILE
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
TO CLOUDY AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT A STEADY SOUTH WIND WILL BE FOUND.
THIS COULD HELP LIMIT FOG AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, A WEAK SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS COULD BRING SOME BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE STATE, ALTHOUGH NBM POPS ARE CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. THIS TROUGH AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL BRING CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 30S, WITH MID 40S SOUTHWEST.
CHRISTMAS EVE STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. CLOUDY SKIES MAY BE FOUND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG RETURNING AT NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE DRY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT MAY MAKE FOG FORMATION DIFFICULT. CHRISTMAS DAY IS
STILL LOOKING TO BE FAIRLY MILD AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING TROUGH COULD PUSH
THROUGH ON CHRISTMAS DAY. PERHAPS MORE MIX PRECIPITATION COULD
ALSO RETURN ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME AS THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE SPLIT IN NATURE, AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE STAYS TO OUR SOUTH. MILD YET MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS ONCE AGAIN THE SPLIT WAVE FAVORS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
TO OUR SOUTH. FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND STILL WARRANTS
MONITORING AS THIS MENTIONED WAVE TO OUR SOUTH ATTEMPTS TO LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE MONITORED. NBM HAS PLACED SOME SLIGHT POPS IN OUR
EAST FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TODAY. CURRENTLY ONLY
ABOUT 20 TO 30% OF CLUSTERS SHOWING FURTHER WESTWARD EXPANSION
TO THESE WINTRY MIX CHANCES, WITH THE MAJORITY OF CLUSTERS
KEEPING THIS WAVE TO OUR EAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR GOING
FORWARD AS CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE THIS A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHERE THE WAVE ENDS UP TRACKING OVER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL ND BY AROUND
09-10 UTC. KBIS AND POSSIBLY KJMS MAY SEE PERIODS OF FZRA DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. WIDESPREAD FOG OVER NORTHERN ND AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SPREAD SOUTH TONIGHT AND IMPACT MUCH OF
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND, INCLUDING KXWA, KMOT, KBIS AND KJMS.
IFR-LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE ALL POSSIBLE AND AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. KDIK IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR NDZ019>022-034>037-046>048-050-051.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...TWH
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