714
FXUS63 KBIS 240549
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1149 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE AN INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT
FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF NEW
SNOW IS FAVORED.
- BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY EVERY DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ND AND INTO CENTRAL ND.
LATE EVENING UPDATES HAVE CAPTURED THIS PRETTY WELL SO NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
MID- AND HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
A VERY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN
THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING ABOUT SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE MAIN WAVE OF
SNOW STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST, BRINGING SOME FLURRIES TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
WHILE SOME MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THOUGH
EVERYWHERE SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST IN GENERAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY SO FAR, WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES UNDERNEATH IT. DAYTIME
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN EDGE. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE
CLOUDS, SO RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOW LONG THEY WILL
PERSIST IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE A
MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAK UP.
THE SOMEWHAT CLEAR SKIES WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TONIGHT, WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE
TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST. A POTENT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE LIFT
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS FOR LIGHT SNOW, STARTING LATE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY EXPANDING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL PUSH OF SNOW AND
SUBSEQUENT HIGHEST PROBABILITIES COME TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH, EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS
INTERMITTENTLY, THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLE AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON
THIS BEING A LIGHT SNOW EVENT, WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA, WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS FAVORED,
WITH THE NORTHWEST A SECONDARY LOCATION WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
FRESH SNOW IS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ON FRIDAY, SO BLOWING SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES BECOME A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF FALLING
SNOW. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
A MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE AND VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WITH IT. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS DRY OVERALL, THE FRONT WILL BRING
CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR A STOUT RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CANADA TO START NEXT WEEK. NBM TEMPERATURE
PERCENTILES HAVE LITTLE SPREAD IN FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, SIGNALING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A QUICK WARMING TREND TO START
THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY WILL RISE TO
THE WIDESPREAD 30S ON MONDAY, WITH GENERALLY A 30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TO REACH AT LEAST 40
DEGREES F MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK
GENERALLY LOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY EXTENDS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES, ALTHOUGH
SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE MILDER
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY, ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING TOO ABNORMALLY STRONG
IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS, WITH NO NOTABLE SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF
EFI.
BEYOND THE MILD PATTERN OF NEXT WORK WEEK (AND INTO THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF FEBRUARY), CLUSTER ANALYSIS BECOMES INCREASINGLY VARIED AS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A MAJORITY OF MEMBERS HAVE A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AREA NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
COOLER AIR INFILTRATING THE REGION, REFLECTED BY A SLIGHT FAVORING
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
VFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THE MOMENT, WITH AN OVERCAST UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CEILINGS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO
FRIDAY EVENING FOLLOWING THE PUSH OF PRECIPITATION, WHICH IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED BY LATE MORNING
ON FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 KTS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...BESSON
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