885
FXUS63 KBIS 241617
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1017 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY, TO A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY, AND THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY INTO THE 40S
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
THE LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS EXITED MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES LINGERING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW, WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE, WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH, WHILE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. FORECAST REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD SHAPE
ADDRESSING THIS, WITH ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ND. SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED IN THE WEST AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. A
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BAND LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA FROM AROUND 6-7 AM BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY AROUND MID-MORNING.
WE DID SLOW DOWN THE TIMING A BIT. PREVIOUS CAMS HAD THE SNOW
OUT OF THE BISMARCK AND MANDAN AREA BY, OR EVEN BEFORE 6 AM. THE
BAND ALSO LOOKS TO BE ENCROACHING UPON SOME DRIER AIR AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL
BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
CURRENTLY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH AN SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO WESTERN ND. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA, SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD FROM WESTERN,
INTO CENTRAL ND AND CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND BY 12Z THIS
MORNING AND PRETTY MUCH EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MID
MORNING (15 UTC OR SO). SNOW THROUGH 15 UTC IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT, MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. BEHIND THIS WARM ADVECTION AND QG
FORCING, THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
THE RAP SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT IT IS PRESENT, AND THERE IS CURRENTLY AROUND
50-100 J/KG OF CAPE OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE LACKING IN ABUNDANT 0-2KM MOISTURE AND GOOD
LOW LEVEL OMEGA AT THIS TIME. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THEY'D BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WE WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE CLOSE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT A TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND
IT, WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES. THE SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETER BUMPS UP A BIT THIS EVENING ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD AIR. AGAIN, INGREDIENTS ARE NOT ALL LINING UP AND
ARE GENERALLY WEAK, BUT A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS AS THE ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS INTO THE STATE, WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES PROBABLY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS ROUND OF SNOW WILL ADD LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. THE MAIN IMPACT TONIGHT COULD BE A
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS, OCCURRING WITH ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TONIGHT MAY BE WINDIER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS DECENT, COLD ADVECTION
IS GREATEST FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND, WHICH LINES
UP WITH THE BEST ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT, BUT DOES EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IT'S NOT A FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD AND THE ELEMENTS ARE
NOT REAL STRONG. IT'S CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH. FOR
THE TIME BEING, WE BUMPED UP THE WINDS A LITTLE TONIGHT USING A
2/1 BLEND OF THE NBM TO NBM90, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND
ADVISORY. THE DAY SHIFT WOULD STILL HAVE TIME TO ASSESS THINGS.
NO MATTER WHAT, IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY TONIGHT AND IF WE SEE
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WHERE THE TWO COINCIDE. THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL, FROM ANY SNOW THAT FALLS TODAY, COMBINED WITH ANY
SNOW TONIGHT, IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY PATCHY AND IS LIMITED IN AREAL
EXTENT.
SATURDAY MAY STILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY EARLY IN THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL ND. ANY FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY, WITH WINDS ALSO TAPERING IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS, WITH LOWER TEENS OR UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. SOME LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE
FAR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH NOT INTO WIND CHILL CRITERIA, MORNING WIND
CHILLS MAY DROP TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO.
AFTER SATURDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COULD DEVELOP. WE REMAIN WITHIN A
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW, BUT WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE. DETERMINISTICALLY THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE STRONG
RIDGING. AS WE REMAIN WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW, IT'S PROBABLE
THAT WE SEE SOME FLUCTUATION IN TEMPERATURES AS IMPULSES SLIDE
DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. THE NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES SHOW THIS
WITH INCREASING SPREAD BEYOND MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST, BUT EVEN THE COLDER NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA CAN EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, IF NOT A
LITTLE ABOVE. THE THREAT FOR ANY BIG WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK, BUT A PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR TWO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE BACK EDGE OF A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS FROM ROLLA,
SOUTHWEST TO HETTINGER, AND WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. GENERALLY LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WITHIN
THIS BAND, AND MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES WHERE SNOW IS
FALLING. AS THE SNOW EXITS, LOOK FOR LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN ANY ONE TAF. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN ND WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ND THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN
THE WINDS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THEY PICK UP
AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SECONDARY
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS IN SNOW SHOWERS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...JJS
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