954
FXUS63 KBIS 242118
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
318 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW IN ITS WAKE.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING THROUGH MANITOBA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY,
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER
OUR AREA WITH A NOTABLE WAVE UPSTREAM OVER SASKATCHEWAN, WHILE A
WEAKER WAVE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA IS RESULTING IN A FEW
FLAKES OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE AND ITS AFFILIATED COLD BOUNDARY DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS GUSTING, AND WILL ALSO BRING
LOW SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS SNOW WILL
REALLY BE QUITE HIT AND MISS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION, IT MAY
COMBINE WITH THE WIND AT TIMES WHILE FALLING TO CREATE BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SOME LOW
CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID, WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER AS THE
COMPACT COLD AIRMASS PASSES THROUGH. ON SUNDAY, WARMER AIRMASS
PUSHES OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK TO NEAR
TO SLIGHT ABOVE AVERAGE, WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACES
BEFORE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST. THIS ACTUALLY MAKES THE
TEMPERATURES FORECAST A BIT TRICKY GIVEN WARMER AIRMASS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND COOLER TO THE NORTHEAST, AND QUESTIONS TO HOW MUCH
THIS MAY SHIFT. THIS CONTINUES TO BE REFLECTED IN NBM
TEMPERATURES SPREADS THAT INCREASE NOTABLY AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOW END VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE DAY GOES ON, BUT LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT,
BUT HAVE REFRAINED TO MENTION TIMING ON INDIVIDUAL TAFS GIVEN
THE LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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