438
FXUS63 KBIS 251500
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
900 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY POST COLD FRONT TODAY. BLOWING SNOW
CONTINUES IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL, AND PARTS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS
STAY BREEZY. LIMITED UPDATES WERE MADE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST. THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY IN THE NORTH WHERE A DEEPER SNOWPACK WAS
LOCATED AND STRONGER WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING THOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BISMARCK AND
LINTON HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 3SM AND 6SM RECENTLY. THIS
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS BASE ON LATEST
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. THE SPS ENDS AT 7 AM. WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING
NORTH WILL LET THE SPS EXPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THERE MAY
BE SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AT TIMES HERE, IF THERE IS ENOUGH
FRESH SNOW AND/OR FALLING SNOW. WILL MONITOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST, IT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, BEFORE WE GET TO
THE QUIET PERIOD WE'LL NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ARE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL ND. ONLY
FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE WEST. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST ND THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL. HERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
INTO THE LOW ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30-35 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. UPSTREAM, WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
EXPECT THIS TREND OF NEAR TO LOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 2-4 HOURS, WINDS DROP OFF A BIT. AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALSO CONTINUE. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAVE
OCCURRED WHEN THE FALLING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COINCIDE. THIS
HAPPENED EARLIER IN THE WEST AND CURRENTLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.
BOTTINEAU AND ROLLA HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND
A HALF MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
AS THE BUBBLE OF STRONG WINDS PUSHES SOUTHEAST, WILL SEE HOW
TRENDS CONTINUE. OVERALL, RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. ALSO, BLOWABLE
SNOW IS HIGHEST IN THE FAR NORTH AND AS STRONGER WINDS WORK
SOUTH, THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL DIMINISHES. THERE WAS SOME
SNOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
YESTERDAY, BUT GIVEN THAT IT'S NEARING 24 HOURS OLD AND HIGHS
CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
STILL LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. WE STILL HAVE A SPS OUT FOR THE WINDS
AND BLOWING SNOW. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT POSSIBLY EXTENDING THAT
THROUGH MID MORNING, DEPENDING ON CURRENT TRENDS CLOSER TO 4 AM.
IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING,
BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE. MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE IN
THE 15 TO 20 BELOW RANGE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TODAY WITH READINGS AROUND 10 NEAR THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING THAT PUSHES INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL
BRING BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A NICE WARM-UP THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WE ARE STILL WITHIN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND THE
BATTLE BETWEEN THE WESTERN CANADIAN RIDGE AND THE EASTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH RAGES ON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTROLS WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
MID-WEEK, BUT OVERALL, AT THIS TIME THE WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS
NBM ENSEMBLE SPREADS HAVE DIMINISHED FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THRERE'S A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES, BUT ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE ALSO ON
THE INCREASE BY THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 900 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH. MVFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE
MORNING AS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING,
BUT PICK UP AGAIN LATE EVENING TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. LLWS MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IF SURFACE WINDS
SUBSIDE, BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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