429
FXUS63 KBIS 261725
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1125 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN NOT
AS WINDY MID TO LATE WEEK.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. LOW
(20-30%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND TRENDS WERE BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
ONCE AGAIN, ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS UPDATE,
MAINLY TO SKY COVER AND BLENDING IN OBSERVED SURFACE PARAMETERS.
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING. A 40 MPH GUST WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE MINOT
AIRPORT, BUT OTHERWISE PEAK GUSTS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE. THE WINDS SHOULD RELAX A LITTLE THERE THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER AREAS BECOME MORE GUSTY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER WERE MADE FOR THE EARLY
MORNING UPDATE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND A HUDSON BAY LOW TO
OUR EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SERIES OF WAVES SLIDING DOWN THE RIDGE, WELL TO OUR EAST WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
AND WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR A PASSING SNOW
SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT CURRENTLY NBM POPS ARE MINIMAL AND
ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IMPACTS LOOK TO
BE MINOR WITH ONLY PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL EACH DAY. HOWEVER IF THERE ARE SOME AREAS THAT SEE
SOME BLOWING SNOW, OR MORE LIKELY JUST DRIFTING SNOW, THERE MAY
BE A THREAT OF ICY PATCHES ON ROADS AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING EACH EVENING.
WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST FLATTENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS EAST OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT A
MINIMUM. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANGES TO OUR
CURRENT NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES, WHICH MAINTAIN A MINIMAL SPREAD
THROUGH MID-WEEK, START TO SHOW AN INCREASING SPREAD LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK, WITH A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH, THERE IS A
DEFINITE DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED THE CPC'S OUTLOOKS FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY FAVORING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS, WE CERTAINLY CAN
SEE THE COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS AS WE LOSE THE STRONG WESTERN CANADIAN
RIDGE. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH ONLY LOW (20-30%)
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH 50-55 KT WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 1,000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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