303
FXUS63 KBIS 270857
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
257 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED DRIFTING SNOW.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW) AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT, THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
STARTING THE PERIOD, A WELL AMPLIFIED PACIFIC RIDGE IS IN PLACE
WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND ONTO THE WEST
CONUS, WHILE THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
WITH LOW AMPLIFICATION OF ANY TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN CANADIAN LOW, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE OF SAID NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK, WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM ALASKA SLIDES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIRTING LOW PRESSURE
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOCALIZED DRIFTING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND ACROSS THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT OF WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND BEING ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, EXPECT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL. OVERALL, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S NORTH AND THE UPPER 30S TO 40S SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST INCREASES GREATLY BY FRIDAY WITH A GREATER THAN 10
DEGREE NBM 25TH/75TH ENSEMBLE SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE THEN INCREASES IN THE RETURN OF SEASONABLY
COOL TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY NEXT MONDAY.
IN REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, THOUGH THERE ARE A
COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. WAA MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHEASTERN AND PARTS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ANY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
WITH NO MORE THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED. SECOND, DESPITE NBM
KEEPING IT DRY FOR NOW, IT SEEMS FAVORABLE THAT SOMETHING WILL
OCCUR SOMEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH, AND
WAA AHEAD OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE SEEM MOST FAVORABLE FOR ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR WITH THIS WAVE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, THEN RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN SIX
HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH 45-55 KT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 1,000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...NH
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