069  
FXUS63 KBIS 271154  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
554 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK, ESPECIALLY  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND  
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED DRIFTING SNOW.  
 
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW) AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT, THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025  
 
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025  
 
STARTING THE PERIOD, A WELL AMPLIFIED PACIFIC RIDGE IS IN PLACE  
WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE RIDGE WILL  
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND ONTO THE WEST  
CONUS, WHILE THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT,  
EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.  
WITH LOW AMPLIFICATION OF ANY TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
EASTERN CANADIAN LOW, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM  
SIDE OF SAID NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, AT THE  
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE  
WORKWEEK, WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM ALASKA SLIDES THROUGH SOUTH  
CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING MORE OFTEN THAN  
NOT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY  
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIRTING LOW PRESSURE  
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOCALIZED DRIFTING SNOW IS  
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND ACROSS THE  
NORTH ON TUESDAY.  
 
AS A RESULT OF WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND BEING ON THE WARM  
SIDE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, EXPECT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND  
SOUTH CENTRAL. OVERALL, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
20S TO LOW 30S NORTH AND THE UPPER 30S TO 40S SOUTHWEST AND  
SOUTH CENTRAL. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE  
FORECAST INCREASES GREATLY BY FRIDAY WITH A GREATER THAN 10  
DEGREE NBM 25TH/75TH ENSEMBLE SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE THEN INCREASES IN THE RETURN OF SEASONABLY  
COOL TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY NEXT MONDAY.  
 
IN REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, THOUGH THERE ARE A  
COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. WAA MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN  
NORTHEASTERN AND PARTS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ANY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT  
WITH NO MORE THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED. SECOND, DESPITE NBM  
KEEPING IT DRY FOR NOW, IT SEEMS FAVORABLE THAT SOMETHING WILL  
OCCUR SOMEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH, AND  
WAA AHEAD OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. NORTH CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE SEEM MOST FAVORABLE FOR ANY LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR WITH THIS WAVE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, THEN RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT,  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN SIX  
HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025  
 
LLWS IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO  
RAPIDLY DROP OFF AND END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LLWS IS THEN  
EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING INITIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST  
BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY TO  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP  
TO 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. AFTER WHICH WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP  
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WITH ANY STRONGER WINDS, DRIFTING SNOW IS  
POSSIBLE, THOUGH SEEMS UNLIKELY TO ELEVATE AND CAUSE TOO MANY  
VISIBILITY ISSUES. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN  
THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,  
MORE BROAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE NORTH  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...TELKEN  
DISCUSSION...TELKEN  
AVIATION...TELKEN  
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