852
FXUS63 KBIS 271945
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
145 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED DRIFTING SNOW.
- 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW) AT
TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT, THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE PATTERN ALOFT WITH SPLIT
FLOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS. A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND IS FORECAST TO STAY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW, THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA AND MOVING INTO
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A THERMAL RIDGE IS ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES. AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
TUESDAY, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTH DAKOTA, LEADING TO
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN MIX THE AIR AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND. THE WINDS COULD CAUSE DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS
THE ROADS, WHERE SNOW IS STILL BLOWABLE. WE USED THE NBM 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
AFTER THURSDAY THE PATTERN WILL SWITCH TO LIKELY A SPLIT FLOW
WITH A CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IN ALL
THIS IS UNSURE, WHICH IS VERY OBVIOUS IN THE NBM TEMPERATURE
SPREADS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SPREAD IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE STARTING FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
WITH ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE. A FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THE
SNOW CHANCES IS A COLDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FOLLOW
THE CLIPPER. THIS ALMOST ALWAYS GIVES WAY LESS QPF IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. FRIDAY IT COULD START AS RAIN WITH
THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ONE THING THAT IS CONFIDENT IS
NORTH DAKOTA COOLING BACK BELOW AVERAGE SATURDAY THROUGH PART OF
NEXT WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND A CLIPPER OR
TWO WILL AID IN SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A CHANCE
WE WILL NEED COLD WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. WIND SHEAR WILL RETURN BETWEEN 08 AND 10Z ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, LASTING UNTIL 16Z.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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