556
FXUS63 KBIS 281530
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WINDY TODAY, ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR EXACT DETAILS ON THE ADVISORY.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. WELL BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FAVORED TO RETURN STARTING NEXT WEEK.
- 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW)
AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT, THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY NORTH WITH
THE LOWER PROBABILITIES SOUTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAINING OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WITHIN THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 MPH. LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS WELL.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WITH MEAN HREF GUSTS FORECAST
AT AROUND 50 MPH. AS A RESULT, ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM 6 AM CST UNTIL 7 PM CST TODAY. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 58 MPH OR GREATER WINDS NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE
(AROUND 1500 FEET). HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE,
LIMITED CAA THIS AFTERNOON, AND MEDIOCRE PRESSURE RISES; IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT, WHILE THERE IS A GREATER THAN ZERO CHANCE OF A FEW HIGH
WIND GUSTS (58 MPH OR GREATER), EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN
AT ADVISORY LEVEL. ONCE WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH STARTING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, THE FORECAST AREA WILL FINALLY SEE A FEW DAYS OF
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, AND THE POLAR JET FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA, THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES, AND
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN. AS A RESULT, EXPECT HIGHS THROUGH
THURSDAY TO GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE UPPER 20S OR LOW 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST. MUCH LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. HIGHS CURRENTLY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY, AND THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY.
AS MENTIONED, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AS PACIFIC RIDGING ENTERS THE WEST CONUS, AND IS
FLATTENED BY UPPER LEVEL CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE AS THE RIDGE
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THIS WILL EJECT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THROUGH
THE REGION THUS PRODUCING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES (MOSTLY
IN THE FORM OF SNOW) STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT, LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RETURN OF
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF MENTIONS IN THESE DISCUSSIONS
LATELY ABOUT TEMPERATURES BEING WELL ABOVE/BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL,
IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
NORTH DAKOTA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE WINTER SEASON, CONSIST OF AN
AVERAGE THAT INCLUDES MANY EXTREMES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VERY WINDY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LLWS IS PRESENT AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER,
WILL RAPIDLY END LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-
011>013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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