052
FXUS63 KBIS 282028
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
228 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. WELL BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FAVORED TO RETURN STARTING NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GREATEST CHANCES (~60 PERCENT) ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH LOWEST CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH
HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OFF THE
WEST COAST WITH LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SPLIT FLOW, WITH OUR AREA REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
AS FOR OUR AREA, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE SYSTEMS, WHILE QUIET WEATHER
REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SLIDES
OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR OVER OUR AREA AS
WE REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, BUT
SOME SUBTLE FEATURES REMAIN A BIT TRICKY SUCH AS HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH.
OTHERWISE, WEATHER REMAINS QUIET.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A BIT OF COOLING AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH
BRINGING A BIT OF COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST
MAY SEE TEENS FOR HIGHS, WHILE THE SOUTHWEST WILL STILL PUSH
INTO THE 30S. SNOW CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT (HIGHEST CHANCES OF AROUND 60 PERCENT OVER THE FAR
NORTH, AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200).
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SATURDAY, THROUGH SNOW CHANCES
REMAIN. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. COLDER
AIR WILL THEN POUR INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY RESULTING IN A WINDY
DAY AND FALLING TEMPERATURES, WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THAT
SAID, SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN AT KMOT AND KJMS
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-
011>013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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