406
FXUS63 KBIS 290308
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
908 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FAVORED TO RETURN STARTING NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GREATEST CHANCES (~60 PERCENT) ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH LOWEST CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 94.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 906 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN WINDS DIMINISH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, SO
FORECAST WINDS AND GUSTS HAVE BEEN TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SKY COVER FORECAST WAS ALSO ADJUSTED TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS
BOTH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW CRITERIA AT ALL
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CHANGE OF NOTE WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER WITH
HIGH CLOUDS FROM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH
HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OFF THE
WEST COAST WITH LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SPLIT FLOW, WITH OUR AREA REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
AS FOR OUR AREA, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE SYSTEMS, WHILE QUIET WEATHER
REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SLIDES
OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR OVER OUR AREA AS
WE REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, BUT
SOME SUBTLE FEATURES REMAIN A BIT TRICKY SUCH AS HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH.
OTHERWISE, WEATHER REMAINS QUIET.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A BIT OF COOLING AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH
BRINGING A BIT OF COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST
MAY SEE TEENS FOR HIGHS, WHILE THE SOUTHWEST WILL STILL PUSH
INTO THE 30S. SNOW CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT (HIGHEST CHANCES OF AROUND 60 PERCENT OVER THE FAR
NORTH, AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200).
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SATURDAY, THROUGH SNOW CHANCES
REMAIN. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. COLDER
AIR WILL THEN POUR INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY RESULTING IN A WINDY
DAY AND FALLING TEMPERATURES, WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 906 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, AND
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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