640
FXUS63 KBIS 290959
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FAVORED TO RETURN STARTING NEXT
WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
SEE THE GREATEST CHANCES (~60 PERCENT) ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE IS A LITTLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIMITED WAA
RESULTING IN SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS, ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR. THAT SAID, THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY, SO
WHILE IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE; VIRGA IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. ALL IN ALL, VERY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIALLY RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC, PROPAGATING ONTO THE WEST CONUS
LATER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WILL MAINTAIN AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEFORE BEING FLATTENED BY UPPER
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC AND WAA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY, THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE BEST CHANCES ARE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AT THIS TIME REMAIN ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE LOWEST
CHANCES (20 PERCENT) SOUTH OF I94. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES NORTHEAST TO THE LOW AND MID
40S SOUTH. A BIT OF A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, HOWEVER,
SATURDAY SHOULD BOUNCE BACK WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHWEST. FORECAST NBM HIGHS SUNDAY
ARE AROUND 10 TO 30 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER, NBM
ENSEMBLE 25TH/75TH PERCENTILE SPREADS ARE VERY LARGE ON SUNDAY
AT AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES. THE FINAL OUTCOME WILL BE BASED ON
THE TIMING OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF IT'S SLOWER,
TEMPERATURES WILL WIND UP ON THE WARMER END OF THE SPECTRUM,
WHILE A QUICKER MOVING FRONT WILL RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES.
DEPENDING ON THE FROPA TIMING, HIGHS SUNDAY MAY OCCUR EARLY IN
THE MORNING WITH EITHER STABLE OR DECREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
THEN EXPECTED RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
VARY FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL
AROUND 8 TO 9Z.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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