644
FXUS63 KBIS 291505
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
905 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FAVORED TO RETURN STARTING NEXT
WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
SEE THE GREATEST CHANCES (~60 PERCENT) ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 905 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED AT THE TIME OF THIS
UPDATE, AS QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. SOME DISPARATE, WEAK REFLECTIVITIES CAN BE FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING ALONG A DISORGANIZED SURFACE
FEATURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOUND AT LOWER
LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE IS A LITTLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIMITED WAA
RESULTING IN SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS, ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR. THAT SAID, THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY, SO
WHILE IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE; VIRGA IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. ALL IN ALL, VERY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIALLY RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC, PROPAGATING ONTO THE WEST CONUS
LATER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WILL MAINTAIN AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEFORE BEING FLATTENED BY UPPER
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC AND WAA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. INITIALLY, THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE BEST CHANCES ARE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AT THIS TIME REMAIN ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE LOWEST
CHANCES (20 PERCENT) SOUTH OF I94. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES NORTHEAST TO THE LOW AND MID
40S SOUTH. A BIT OF A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, HOWEVER,
SATURDAY SHOULD BOUNCE BACK WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHWEST. FORECAST NBM HIGHS SUNDAY
ARE AROUND 10 TO 30 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER, NBM
ENSEMBLE 25TH/75TH PERCENTILE SPREADS ARE VERY LARGE ON SUNDAY
AT AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES. THE FINAL OUTCOME WILL BE BASED ON
THE TIMING OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF IT'S SLOWER,
TEMPERATURES WILL WIND UP ON THE WARMER END OF THE SPECTRUM,
WHILE A QUICKER MOVING FRONT WILL RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES.
DEPENDING ON THE FROPA TIMING, HIGHS SUNDAY MAY OCCUR EARLY IN
THE MORNING WITH EITHER STABLE OR DECREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
THEN EXPECTED RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 905 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A WESTERLY TO SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM/TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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