317
FXUS63 KBIS 292337
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
537 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FAVORED
TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
SEE THE GREATEST CHANCES (~60 PERCENT) ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
FORECAST SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING OFF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
SUPPORTED BY BOTH SIMULATED VISIBILITY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE
HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR TO FOG FORMATION
THOUGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, WHILE A BAND OF HIGH BASED CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
LIMITED WAA, MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME WEAK
REFLECTIVITIES CAN OCCASIONALLY BE FOUND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
CLOUDS, BUT THEIR ELEVATED BASES AND A DISTINCT LACK OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INHIBITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY OBSERVABLE
SNOWFALL AT THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH HIGHS TODAY FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL, UP TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL SHIFT FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WHICH, ALONG WITH A GENERAL TREND
FURTHER SOUTHWARD, WILL ALLOW COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, MINOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AHEAD THE LANDFALL OF A MORE DISORGANIZED LOW ON THE
CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST. WITH THE ADVENT OF THIS RIDGE, A BRIEF
RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER, WITH HIGHS FROM LOWER 20S
NORTHCENTRAL UP TO THE UPPER 40S AND POTENTIAL THE LOWER 50S IN
THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARMTH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO LAST, HOWEVER, AS A VARIETY OF WAVES
EJECTING OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTERN LOW WILL PROMOTE A
SERIES OF REINFORCING COOL SHOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, DROPPING FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTH UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THESE WAYS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. WITH THESE WINDS
LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WHEN LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FROM 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH UP TO AROUND 0 SOUTH, THERE
ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH TO OBSERVE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 30 BELOW ZERO MONDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING,
THOUGH SOMEWHAT LESS CONVINCINGLY WITH LIGHTER WINDS
ANTICIPATED.
THIS WEEKEND WILL ALSO REPRESENT OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW. WITH THE INCREASING AVAILABILITY OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRIDAY, THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES PRIMED FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE WAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
THIS, WE ARE FORECASTING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30 TO 60
PERCENT) FOR THIS PERIOD, FOUND MAINLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY
HIGHWAY CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE WEST. WITH INCREASING WAA OUT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF A RAIN-SNOW MIX SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, REACH
UP TO AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES AT MOST ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH A
LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) FOR A FEW LOCAL AREAS TO
EXCEED 2 INCHES OVERALL. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (10 TO 30 PERCENT), IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH AND ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THIS
TIME FRAME, LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ALMOST EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK AS WE SETTLE INTO A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KMOT LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10 KTS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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