787
FXUS63 KBIS 301810
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1210 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FAVORED
TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHANCES (~60 PERCENT) ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH
THE LOWEST CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COULD BE FOUND ON SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
QUIET AND CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THE TIME OF THIS EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. ALL FOG FROM
THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED. NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
WERE NECESSARY, AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A POCKET OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FOG
STILL LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THIS TIME, MAINLY IN ROLETTE AND PIERCE COUNTIES, THOUGH
HAS BEEN STEADILY ERODING. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
REIGN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO BE FOUND IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE SHOWING THIS
FOG NICELY, AND ALSO SHOWS IT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. ISSUED
AND SPS FOR AREAS IMPACTED BY THIS FOG, MAINLY IN BOTTINEAU,
ROLETTE, AND PIERCE COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM CST. AFTER THIS TIME FOG
SHOULD BECOME EVEN MORE ISOLATED AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISH.
HOWEVER, IF FOG PERSISTS LONGER THAN PERHAPS AN EXTENSION OF
THE SPS WOULD BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG, WITH IS STARTING TO BE FOUND IN THE NORTHEAST. COVERAGE IS
CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY FOG HIGHLIGHT, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY
WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. WINDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN LIGHT TODAY. A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH
IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THIS FRONT
WILL BE SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING THIS COULD LEAD TO
FOG, ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXED RESULTS OF FOG,
STRATUS, AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY YET FAIRLY LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN THE SOUNDINGS,
PLACED IN FOG MENTION TO START DURING PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH. SURFACE FRONT STALLS OUT ON FRIDAY,
WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FOUND ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL PROVIDE COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND EAST, WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
THE MENTIONED WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN LOOK
TO COME SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE NORTH. THE SIGNAL FOR
BANDED SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AT THIS TIME. NBM STILL SHOWING
20 TO 40% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE NORTH
SATURDAY, WITH LESS THAN 15% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AND IN THE 40S
SOUTHWEST, YET COOL TO NEAR NORMAL AND IN THE 20S NORTHEAST.
CLIPPER THEN MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS CLIPPER COULD BE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, ALTHOUGH ECMWF EFI VALUES REMAIN
MODEST. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD BRING SOME BLOWING OF FRESH
SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
COOL BEHIND THE MENTIONED FRONT ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR 30 IN THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A
CHANCE OF SNOW (20 TO 40%) COULD THEN RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE COLD AIR FILTERING IN
WILL DROP LOWS BELOW ZERO. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING
NORTHWEST WINDS COLD RETURN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
CLUSTERS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO
BRING A STEADY STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WESTERN AND PERHAPS
NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE, ARCTIC AIR
LOOKS TO SETTING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RESULT IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COLD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK, WITH PERHAPS SOME VERY
COLD WIND CHILLS AT TIMES. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES
FOR SNOW THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, WITH NBM BRINGING 20 TO 40%
CHANCES EACH DAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ENDS UP. CLUSTERS ARE NEARLY
SPLIT EVENING ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT, ALTHOUGH NBM CHANCES FOR
OVER AN INCH OF SNOW IN ANY 24 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD AND GENERALLY 20 TO 40% ACROSS THE
AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CAN BE FOUND AT ALL TERMINALS TO
BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING, A DECK OF LOW STRATUS
AND FOG WILL MOVE IN OUT OF THE NORTH AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, PROMOTING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MOST
CONFIDENTLY AT KMOT, KXWA, AND KJMS. THERE IS ALSO SOME LIMITED
POTENTIALS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT KJMS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SUCH
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING,
EXPANDING ACROSS THE NORTH BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTIONS OF SNOW AT KXWA
AT THIS TIME, AS THE HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN FURTHER NORTH.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM/ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ADAM
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