065
FXUS63 KBIS 310319
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
919 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE THE GREATEST
CHANCES (~70 PERCENT) ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH THE
LOWEST CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH NEAR-
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TO
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
FOR THIS UPDATE, CHANGES ARE MAINLY REFLECTIVE OF THE LATEST NBM
AND CAM GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING AND MESSAGING. THE
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING DOWN FROM
CANADA. STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER FOG OR JUST LOW CEILINGS WILL BE
PREDOMINANT, AND IT COULD END UP BEING A MATTER OF TERRAIN
INFLUENCES. RECENT RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THIS IN OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME ON ACCOUNT OF
SHALLOWER NEAR-SURFACE SATURATED LAYERS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS THAN
WHAT ARE TYPICALLY REQUIRED FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF IS BELOW
FREEZING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM CANADA
AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO FROM TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
NEAR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A LOW CENTER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO TAP INTO A GREATER STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD AND
CALM, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST FROM AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL UP TO THE MID 40S SOUTHWEST, THIS GREATER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES FOR FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AN INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAINLY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH EVEN HERE CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW.
WITH THE COLD FRONT DIGGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT,
A RETURN TO COOLER, CLOUDIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS, UP TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, MODEST WAA ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL PROMOTE MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY MORNING AS A PACIFIC NORTHWESTERN LOW CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL ON THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST. A SERIES OF WAVES
EMINATING FROM THIS LOW IS EXPECTED PICK UP THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM AND PUSH TO IT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THIS SYSTEM, WE AGAIN EXPECTED MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES (40 TO 70 PERCENT) FOR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LOW, UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW AT MOST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 2
INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 30%
AS OF THE LATEST FORECAST CYCLE. WITH WAA AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER,
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE
MORNING. BEHIND THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WIND, ALONG
WITH THE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW, COULD INDUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER, THE MAIN WAVE ALOFT CROSSES THE FORECAST
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND DRAGS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, FORECAST FROM AROUND 15
BELOW IN THE NORTHWEST UP TO JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL. WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LESS
THAN 30 BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR AND THE RIVER. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS
AS LOWS LESS THAN 10 BELOW ZERO PERSIST, THOUGH A LITTLE LESS
CONVINCINGLY AS OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE NOTABLY WEAKER. AT THE SAME
TIME, WITH THE LOW CENTER PROGGED TO LINGER OVER WESTERN CANADA
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF NEXT WEEK,
OPENING UP THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND AN
AGITATED FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WORKWEEK.
AS AS RESULT, NEAR DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30 TO 50%) FOR
LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMALS, THOUGH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE ZERO BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 919 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING IN LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOG. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT,
SPREADING INTO THE BISMARCK AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE
TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE FOG WILL BE. LOW
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO LIFT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH, WITH WIND
SPEEDS PICKING UP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...JOHNSON/HOLLAN
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