935
FXUS63 KBIS 250302
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 PM CST MON FEB 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MODERATE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) ON
TUESDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST MON FEB 24 2025
FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE, WE INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. RELIED
HEAVILY ON A TIME LAGGED RAP FOR AREAL PLACEMENT. WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND PLENTY OF SNOWMELT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON,
FOG COULD END UP A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, JUST ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST MON FEB 24 2025
RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE ALSO
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, SO WE WILL LET THE
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AT 00Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. JUST BLENDED IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST MON FEB 24 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW/TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES NOTED IN
THE FLOW. ONE OF THE MORE NOTABLE ONES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PRODUCED SOME LIGHT RAIN WHICH PASSES FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, AND IS NOW NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, RAIN WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL
DEPARTURE AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION,
WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, LEADING TO A QUIET NIGHT OVER THE AREA.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE NEXT CLIPPER PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, ALBEIT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NOTABLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING OVER A FEW LOCATIONS, THOUGH THIS WOULD BE VERY LIMITED.
WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY, MOST NOTABLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
QUIET AND VERY MILD WEATHER THEN CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NEXT CHANCES FOR A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SHOW UP ON FRIDAY AS A MODEST SHORT WAVE AND
ITS AFFILIATED LOW DROP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, BUT FOR NOW
CHANCES ARE JUST FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS. THIS ALSO WILL
BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH A TEMPERATURE REBOUND FOR SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST MON FEB 24 2025
SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS MAY HANG ON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR OR LOW VFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE INTO
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KXWA AND
KMOT. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AT
KDIK MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...ZH
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