019
FXUS63 KBIS 251504
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
904 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO RETURN TODAY,
WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE WEST. ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH DAILY
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50
SOUTH, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
- WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FRIDAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
(20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
MORE AND MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST, SO WE BUMPED UP POPS FROM WHAT THE NBM HAD
THROUGH THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF OUR
CWA, THE PATCHY FOG IS GONE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS VARIOUS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE RIVER. SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER
OUR STATE FROM THE WEST, HOWEVER THIS IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND, WITH MOST OBSERVED CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.
OTHERWISE, A RATHER MILD MORNING CONTINUES, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING A WEAK, TRANSIENT CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A LULL IN THE WINDS,
ALONG WITH SNOWMELT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY, HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COTEAU AND IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, THIS MORNING IS PRETTY MILD, WITH LOWS IN THE MID
20S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BRINGING SOME CHANCES (GENERALLY 20 TO 40
PERCENT) FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST WITH THE ONSET OF THIS PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD
QUICKLY TRANSITION ENTIRELY TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE BEGIN TO WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING. ICE AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT MOST, WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO
BECOME WINDY IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW, AS WELL AS THE RETURN
OF A SOMEWHAT PROMINENT 850MB JET. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S
EVENT, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE, WE'VE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FOUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER
50S SOUTH, WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S.
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN A PRETTY MILD PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD, ALONG
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S (POTENTIALLY THE 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL) ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON
THURSDAY. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
30S ON THURSDAY, AS A RESULT OF SOME SLIGHT TROUGHING DIGGING IN
TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BREEZY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, INITIALLY IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING,
BEFORE SPREADING EAST DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S, INCREASING INTO THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY, PASSING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR
NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW. AS A RESULT, WE SEE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES (ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTH. THIS MAY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX, AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION FALLING BEFORE TEMPERATURES INCREASE TOO FAR ABOVE
FREEZING. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS,
AS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE ENTIRE STATE WILL BE WINDY, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
FOLLOWING THIS WAVE, TEMPERATURES MAY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY, BEFORE REBOUNDING AND CONTINUING TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 30 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE MVFR
CRITERIA WITH THIS RAIN, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY HELP BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DOMINATE THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY, MOSTLY IMPACTING KDIK, WHERE SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIND SPEEDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-041-043-
044.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...BESSON
AVIATION...BESSON
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