259
FXUS63 KBIS 252030
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
230 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH DAILY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
- WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FRIDAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
(20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW UP
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA, IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ONLY LIGHT RAIN HAS
BEEN REPORTED VERY SCARCELY ACROSS THE AREA. WE MADE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
MORE THAN WHAT THE NBM HAD, JUST TO GIVE MORE COVERAGE. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL END AROUND 6PM CT WEST TO EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE IN THE NEXT 2 HOUR TO REACH THE NBM
HIGH TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THICK CLOUD COVER. AREAS OF
FALLING RAIN WILL ALSO BE COOLER, WITH THE COLDER AIR FALLING
WITH THE RAIN DROPS. WE STILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FOUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL 00Z. WE HAVE NOT YET SEEN WINDS GUSTING
TO 45MPH YET, OR SUSTAINED OF 35MPH OR MORE. SO, THE ADVISORY
MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 6PM CT. ALOFT THE PATTERN IS QUASI-
NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE WAVES OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, CREATING A LARGE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE 20 PLUS DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE STATE, MAINLY THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE RED
RIVER. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S, SNOW IS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE IT MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
CURRENTLY THE NBM ONLY HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FRIDAY
BETWEEN SUNRISE AND SUNSET. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE
CLIPPER, WINDS COULD GET WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER, AND MAY WARRANT AN ADVISORY LATER THIS WEEK. ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER, IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE (LOWER 30S) WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. THE SOUTHWEST IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
STAY IN THE MID 40S FOR NOW. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD, THE NBM
TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE 32
DEGREES AS OF NOW. THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO POSSIBLY ZONAL
OR SPLIT FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
VFR CIGS AND VIS FOR THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z, MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH. WINDS WILL TURN
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLE GUSTING TO 35KTS IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-041-043-
044.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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